The majority of my research to keep our portfolio in shape is often invisible to you. Obviously, some of that work, which appears as trade alerts, can be noted and measured easily.

But there is so much more analysis that never registers publically. I often think the best moves I make in our portfolio are the ideas that end up on the proverbial editing floor. On average, I look at 20-30 stocks a week in search of new bullish and bearish ideas for Profit Catalyst Alert.

The most frustrating ones are those that look quite promising initially but under my third and fourth round of inspection expose some wart that erodes my confidence.

I’m not always right. Some of those abandoned names go up quite nicely. I keep track of them so that I can try to figure out where I went wrong and because I am a glutton for punishment.

Another big swath of time goes into staying on top of the news for current holdings. Much of what you see in this weekly report but there are reams of data and filings that I work through that simply reinforce my current thinking and don’t merit note as an update.

Whenever a stock moves against us, I spend more time attempting to make sure I’m on the right track.

Take the news swirling around Ichor Systems (NSDQ: ICHR) last week. This company, which supplies materials to semiconductor equipment makers, is ramping revenue quite rapidly. Although it has been able to grow much faster than the industry via new products and more recently, more customers, the stock continues to get lumped in as a cyclical semiconductor stock.

For Ichor that required reading through transcripts and filings for its two largest customers in addition to reviewing the news for the customers of those customers. That’s a lot of digging.

In the end, it looks like all is well with Ichor. See below for more details, and I’m off to dig for more ideas.

Around the Portfolio:

Abbvie (NSDQ: ABBV) announced positive results from a phase III study on its rheumatoid arthritis drug candidate, upadacitinib. The use of this drug (at two doses, 15 mg, and 30 mg) met the primary endpoints of clinical remission at weeks 12 and 24 versus methotrexate, a steroid used as the standard of care for treatment.

“This study, named “SELECT-EARLY, is the fifth pivotal trial that will support regulatory submissions for upadacitinib in rheumatoid arthritis later this year,” said Michael Severino, M.D., executive vice president, research and development and chief scientific officer, AbbVie. “Results from SELECT-EARLY further support our belief that upadacitinib has the potential to be an important new treatment option for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.”

This study is especially crucial for Abbvie as it has the potential to generate $6 billion of sales if approved. Rheumatoid arthritis is a huge disease category in which many patients cannot tolerate standard steroid treatment.

Harsco (NYSE: HSC) should benefit from U.S. Steel’s (NYSE: X) plant to restart a second Granite City Works blast furnace. Harsco’s revenue growth correlates with expanding steel production.

Ichor Systems was down 8% last week on worries about revenue growth for its two largest customers, Applied Materials (NSDQ: AMAT) and Lam Research (NSDQ: LRCX) Evercore analyst CJ Muse said his recent checks suggest Lam Research may see some weakness in near-term shipments due to delays from memory makers. Muse reduced his estimates for this year but added that he expects a recovery in NAND memory capex into the end of the year and first half of 2019.

As a reminder, Lam Research and Applied made up 53% and 40% respectively, of Ichor’s revenue last year. While dependence on these two customers is significant, Ichor has consistently grown faster than both companies.

Just last quarter, revenue outside of these top two customers tripled.

The company acquired several companies in the past year to help it expand its products and its customer base. Management is emphatic that its business will grow regardless of any hiccups in the big semiconductor equipment space. Note CEO Rohrs comments from the last conference call:

“And most importantly, for everyone who is worried about semiconductor cycles turning down next, even in a flatter, declining equipment market, we believe we can still show strong growth due to the incremental revenue streams I just enumerated. Let me repeat that. With all of our anticipated growth vectors, our revenue will still grow next year even if WFE spending declines.”

Ichor management spoke at an industry conference on May 30th. The transcript is not public, but the stock did rise after those meetings. It is scheduled to speak this Wednesday, June 13th. I’ll be watching closely to see how the stock reacts but unless the company’s story has changed dramatically in the past two weeks (unlikely), I expect the stock to rise.

Old Dominion Freight (NSDQ: ODFL) released May 2018 shipment data. LTL (less-than-truckload) tons per day increased 15.3% as compared to May 2017 due to an 11.0% increase in the volume of shipments and a 3.9% increase in LTL weight per shipment. For the quarter-to-date period, LTL revenue per hundredweight increased 6.7% as compared to the same period last year.

This increase compares favorably with April’s increase of 15.5%. Revenue growth equals tons shipped per day times rate per ton. Recent rate increases of 6-7% mean the company is tracking towards its 21-23% expected revenue growth.

Omnicom (NYSE: OMC) continues to frustrate me as the stock treads water. The most recent update I have on OMC is a lowering of a price target by Morgan Stanley on May 23rd. I was not impressed by the last quarter, but the stock has been pretty resilient. The next event for the company is its earnings release right before the puts expire (expected on July 18 and options expire July 20). The stock finally caught some sellers but rebounded. In retrospect, it was a good selling point.

The Morgan Stanley analyst highlighted a deceleration in organic growth and risks to profit margins. He lowered his price target to $73 from $76, while reiterating an Underweight rating on the stock.

Saia (NSDQ: SAIA) also provided quarter-to-date shipment data. In April 2018, LTL shipments per workday increased 7.9%, and LTL tonnage per workday increased 10.6% compared to April 2017. In May 2018, LTL shipments per workday increased 4.2%, and LTL tonnage per workday increased 7.3% compared to May 2017.

Steelcase (NYSE: SCS) announced a collaboration with West Elm to create workplace solutions to support the changing preferences of people at work. The two companies are finalizing the details of this new relationship. Steelcase expects to offer a selection of West Elm furniture designed specifically for the workplace through its network of U.S. and Canadian dealers by the end of the year. This partnership builds upon the successful relationship West Elm established in 2015 with Designtex, a Steelcase company, which designs textiles and surface materials, and manufactures and distributes West Elm fabrics.

Steelcase also acquired Smith System Manufacturing Company, a Texas-based manufacturer of furniture for the preK-12 education market. Steelcase sees the opportunity to double Smith System’s business within five years by expanding sales through the Steelcase dealer network.

Steven Madden (SHOO) continues to creep higher and saw some analyst activity last week. The stock was initiated with Hold rating and $49 target at Loop Capital, but bullish notes from Piper Jaffrey and Telsey overshadowed the cautious one.

I don’t have access to the details of the Loop or Piper notes, but services say the Telsey increase relies on that analyst’s tour of the company’s showroom and management meetings.

The bear in me always gets nervous when an analyst starts coverage of one my stocks with a target price that is lower than the current price. I am reviewing my model for any cracks and will ensure I can justify a higher valuation. My current target is $58, relatively close to today’s price.