AbbVie Falls on More Bear Fodder, Why Truckers are Stuck in Neutral and more…

We had another busy week of earnings, and while we were sadly not involved in the bear play on Facebook (NYSE: FB), its drop has all kinds of new ideas sloshing around for future trades. Some of you may remember the great short call we had on Facebook last March.

Unfortunately, a few of our positions dropped in a storm of bad news as well. Read on for my thoughts on AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) and the truckers which all fell despite the solid fundamental news.

I continue to weed through the turmoil for new ideas. I’ve got quite a few that are looking very promising and will issue trade alerts when they are ready.

This week will be no less busy on the earnings front. Here’s the schedule:

Tuesday: AM: Steven Madden (NSDQ: SHOO) and Agco (NSDQ: AGCO)
Wednesday: AM: SAIA Corp (NSDQ: SAIA)
Thursday: AM: ANI Pharma (NSDQ: ANIP), Chemours (NYSE: CC) and Harsco (NYSE: HSC)
Thursday: PM: Carbonite (NSDQ: CARB)

Around the Portfolio: 
A war between the bears and the bulls is trapping AbbVie stock. The bull argument (of which I am part of) is that revenue from the company’s Hep C drug grew 100% and is helping the company compensate for the impending slowdown in growth from its most significant drug, Humira.

The bear camp is partly being fed by a short theory being parceled out by Citron Research. This free website provided a few more details of its short thesis. It rests on the argument that Abbvie has struck deals to delay the entrance of generic competition for Humira and that shifts in the regulatory waters at the FDA and regarding rebates to PBM (prescription benefit managers) will hurt Humira sales more than expected.

I don’t disagree that the PBMs are in a difficult spot if regulation regarding rebates changes. However, I do not think Abbvie has done anything untoward regarding its patent litigation, and the numbers illustrate a company focusing on new drugs to grow sales via innovation and higher prescription growth versus price increases.

Abbvie’s quarter reported last week showcased the 100% growth in its Hep C drug, volume growth of 16% and a boost from pricing of just 1%. Earnings guidance for the year increased $.10 after a $.03 quarterly beat.

I think the stock is a great bargain. The psychology surrounding drug stocks has been brutal this year so the stock may bounce around, but my analysis shows a positive trend in earnings.

Agco Corp. and Titan Machinery (NSDQ: TITN) enjoyed a bounce due to the administration unveiling an aid package to farmers. The aid is intended to help farmers hurt by the retaliatory tariffs placed on soybean crops. I’ve written extensively about these tariffs. (note: We sold the Lindsay (NYSE: LNN) puts on July 17).

This plan is a psychological positive for the farm/ag group but after reading reactions from farmers who are worried about the long-term plan for their businesses with tariffs in place. This aid will help keep them in business, but I think most will still be hesitant to invest in new equipment. AGCO reports on July 31st and TITN on August 30th. Both puts will still be active at that time. However, I will be watching closely to make sure they don’t move against us too much.

Entegris (NSDQ: ENTG) reported revenue of $383M versus estimates of $380M and $.49 versus a $.46 estimate. The balance sheet and cash flow looked clean and strong. The sell-off in the stock could be related to the company’s comments regarding China. China is a large component of the company’s growth, and investors are nervous about the looming trade war.

However, CEO Loy reiterated my bullish take on the stock, which is that demand for its products is not entirely dependent on any one market or on the build-out of new manufacturing capacity. I expect the stock to rebound once the cloud of tech selling dissipates.

Old Dominion Trucking (NSDQ: ODFL), Werner Enterprises (NSDQ: WERN) and SAIA Inc. slumped between 5% and 8% last week despite Old Dominion and Werner reporting robust earnings and issuing bullish guidance.

Brokers all around issued positive notes.

Werner reported $.61 versus the consensus of $.50 and revenue of $619.1M, better than the consensus $598.3M. Lone bear Merrill upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underperform and Cowen called it one of the most impressive quarters in the group.

On Old Dominion, Cowen raised its target on Old Dominion to $156 to $145 and noted the company reported its all-time best quarterly earnings. Alas, this “best” is the exact fear feeding investors. It appears investors think the numbers cannot get any better if we are at the top of a cyclical move.

This is where my thinking differs from the masses. I believe we are in a secular bull move in trucking. Excess capacity left the market years ago, and swelling of demand due to online shopping creates a long-term positive for the industry.

The group has been tough to own, bouncing around like a yo-yo. I am considering placing stop limits on the stocks as it is challenging to know when the psychology will shift on these stocks. Whenever I get the news I am looking for (or even better than I was looking for) yet the stock activity doesn’t deliver, I must reconsider my thinking. Stay posted as I will issue a formal alert if I place stop-loss sell limits on these positions.

Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF) lost its contract with Walmart. Rumors of Capital One winning the contract away from Synchrony circulated last week. I opined that the company had a good relationship and had likely been working on a renewal for months. However, it looks like Walmart did what it is famous for, negotiating threadbare terms with its suppliers.

“Although we pursued a renewal with Walmart, we were unable to reach terms that made economic sense for the company and our shareholders,” said Sue Bishop, a spokeswoman for Synchrony. “We’re going to focus on areas of our business where there’s significant growth potential and attractive returns over time.”

Match this against a comment from Capital One Chief Executive Officer Richard Fairbank who said last week his firm doesn’t view private label card offerings as a “profit center.” It is pretty tough to negotiate against a competitor who is willing to lose money on a contract. While this is not positive for Synchrony, it seems to be a wise move by management.

The company reported earnings Friday morning, which on the surface appear extremely strong. Revenue and earnings were above expectations, coming in at $3.7B and $.92 versus estimates of $3.1B and $.82 respectively.

Stock Talk

Stanley Golovac

Stanley Golovac

Linda what’s up with BJ’s. Any comments

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Stanley,
There’s nothing new on BJ’s since the flurry of initiations two weeks ago. The company reports earnings on Aug. 22nd and I don’t know of any other comparable companies reporting before so expect the stock to tread with the market until then. It is well above the $17 IPO price, which is helpful technically. I would worry if the stock falls to the $21.25 area, which is where it opened on the IPO day. At that level, sellers who risk being underwater on new purchases might enter the market. I will issue an alert if I think a sale is warranted.
Best,
Linda

Stanley Golovac

Stanley Golovac

Linda I still can’t get into TITN from 6/25. ? Let it go or? What the position you mentioned I couldn’t purchase at

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Stanley,
You may have seen that I suggested selling the TITN calls today. Almost all of my options trade suggestions have a limited time horizon. This is because of options’ expiration dates and because I choose the expiration date to hopefully encompass an event that I expect to move the stock.
Earnings from AGCO happened earlier this week and while TITN will report on August 30th, I suggested booking the 30% gain. I suggest holding on to the AGCO puts as they don’t expire until November.
Stay tuned for more options trade suggestions.
Best,
Linda

Daniel Long

Daniel Long

Still keeping SYF? Down 12% at the moment.
DL

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Daniel,
I know, it is hard to have SYF down and I certainly did not expect them to lose the WMT contract when I recommended the stock. That said, I do think to exit the contract is prudent as SYF has been executing on a plan to improve the credit scores of their receivables and WMT wanted them to loosen credit requirements. I’m reviewing my estimates but believe holding it is the best option as recent earnings trends are very favorable.
Best,
Linda

Daniel Long

Daniel Long

OK. Thanks for the follow through. Will watch with you.
DL

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