Traders continue to focus on oil demand rather than supply. As I pointed out in the last issue of TES, this is likely to continue until there’s some sign of at least stabilization in oil demand in the developed world. Yesterday’s move was a classic buy the rumor/sell the news reaction--traders had already priced in a 2 million bbl/d cut, and once that news was released the focus shifted immediately back to the demand side of the equation. Read More
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We’re following a simple strategy in The Energy Strategist: buying stocks in beaten-down energy subsectors with strong long-term prospects and buying defensive stocks and preferreds that offer high income potential. Read More
The oil markets are already sowing the seeds of another big rally. Weak oil prices spell a moderation in new exploration investment and shrinking supplies of crude. I suspect we’ll see the global economy begin to recover in the latter half of 2009. When that happens, oil demand will stabilize, and the supplies needed to meet that consumption simply won’t be there. As we wait for this story to play out, I recommend adding a bit of income to your portfolio. Read More
The past few months have been painful for most market sectors, including energy. But there’s a silver lining: Income-oriented investors now have a once-in-a-decade opportunity to grab companies with little or no exposure to an economic slowdown or weak energy prices and lock in tax-advantaged yields of 8 to 15 percent. Read More
Sell the MacroShares $100 Oil Down (AMEX: DOY, $31.95) exchange traded note for a profit of about 29 percent from my original recommendation. Read More
The vicious selloff in the broader market since the beginning of October has spared few sectors and industries. The energy sector is no exception: The S&P 500 Energy Index is off more than 31 percent since the beginning of October against a 27 percent decline in the S&P 500. Read More
Warren Buffett isn’t a market-timer, and he’s admitted on numerous occasions that he’s not great at predicting short-term events. Nonetheless, from a longer-term perspective, investors would do well to follow his basic contrarian discipline of buying stocks when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy. Read More
On Friday, legendary investor Warren Buffett penned an op-ed piece for The New York Times entitled "Buy American. I Am." For those interested in reading the full text of that piece, I posted a link to the article on the blog At These Levels (www.attheselevels.com). Read More
For the past few weeks, the stock and credit markets have been taking their cue from Washington and the fate of the proposed Paulson plan to buy up troubled mortgage assets from banks. This could remain the case for a while longer. That said, I do expect passage of a bill this week, and we’re setting up for a classic yearend rally. If history is any guide, energy stocks will be among the best performers in such a move. Read More
Whether you believe the proposed financial "bailout" plan was an appropriate response or an unnecessary government intrusion, it's clear the market wasn’t pleased by the failure of the bill to pass the House of Representatives. After all, politicians have just spent the past week telling us the dire economic consequences of a "no" vote, so it's hardly surprising the market got spooked. Yesterday's selloff was the largest percentage drop for the broader averages since the 1987 stock market crash. Read More