Buy Alert: Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)
TRADE INSTRUCTIONS
Date: October 11, 2016
Name: Banco Macro S.A.
Symbol: BMA
Type: Open
Limit: Buy below $81TRADE TARGETS
Holding Period: 1 month
Target Return: 4.2%
Annualized Return: 51%
Stop Loss Level: $72TRADE RATIONALE
BANCO MACRO SA (Argentina) is a mid-cap value stock (market cap of $4.5 billion) that trades as an ADR (American Depository Receipt) on the NYSE. It offers traditional bank products and services to companies, including those operating in regional economies, as well as to individuals. In addition, it provides services to over four provincial governments.
While the U.S. stock market has been at a virtual standstill during the past year, investors in the Argentina stock market (MERVAL) have enjoyed a nearly 70% return since last October due in large part to the austerity measures and trade agreements implemented by its new President, Mauricio Macri. The money center banking sector has been among the biggest beneficiaries of these new policies, facilitating much of the increase in global trade Mr. Macri has negotiated.
This buy alert is based on one of our rarest, but most reliable signals which has produced an average return of 4.2% over a holding period of 1 Month across a total of 58 signals historically. The signal occurs on average only four times per year, and has produced a positive return 72.4% of the time. Although this trade is not likely to achieve our stretch goal of a 100% annualized return, its one-month target holding period means our money will not be tied up in it very long.
Stock Talk
black arrow
Hi Jim,
I checked out a 10 minute chart and RSI is starting to rise. This is a tip for my fellow traders you can’t get the true picture on a daily chart so before you jump in look at a short time shows you.
Anyway thanks very much for a new stock pick, it has been a very trying year as you know mainly due to being an election year.
Thanks again for all your work
Tazbo
Thank you. Which 10 minutes was that?
black arrow
There are many possible times frames for charts Tazbo. For example eventually you should discover looking at a monthly chart a weekly chart. Getting down to a daily chart, and depending on what kind of trader you may be an hourly, 10 minute, 5 minute or even less.
I will pass on a good tip I got from a webinar by the man most credit for unlocking the secrets of Japanese Candlestick charts; Steve Nison. Steve said before you enter your trade assuming you have a daily time frame, change to a shorter time frame, do not enter til 3 time periods go by so lets say you choose 5 minutes you see where the symbols are leading over a period of 15 minutes – is it going up or down? If three in a row are down you may decide to stand aside.
Here is another timing tip often the high of the day will be before 10 AM. So you do not be the ‘first kid on the block to jump into a position you may pay too much. On the other hand you may want to sell early to get a higher price.
Personally I like to use stockcharts.com which I have belonged to for 11 years now. you can check it out free, and learn a lot.
This is where I found out to just name one thing today; the combination of higher rates, and a strong US Dollar are pushing Global stocks lower. John Murphy has a wealth of understanding to impart to those who want to understand the inter market relationship. He tells us for one thing rising crude oil prices may be contributing to higher interest rates.
you can learn how to make a chart able to change in an instant from one time frame to another to help your decisions.
hope that may be helpful
Tazbo
It is definitely helping to underpin a decision I had already made.
black arrow
Hi Tazbo,
I was just looking at my chart of BMA, and the last trade of the day was a buy of 691 shares. This points to a large buyer like institutional because it is a large trade and was the last trade of the day – they like to hold their cards close but if you know where to look you can at least find what the last trade was.
We are hours from the open but to get a hint at how markets may open look for futures contracts.
Cheers
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StarkmanAZ
Jim,
When I signed up I thought we were going to receive phone text messages. How do we make this happen?
Thank you.
black arrow
Hi Starkman,
I know from experience you call the office and tell them you want to have that done and they take care of it for you.
have a good one
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Jim Pearce
That is correct; you need to provide our customer service department with the mobile telephone number where you want text alerts sent:
1. Through email: customerservice@investingdaily.com, or
2. By phone: 800-832-2330
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Alpha_Dog_510
Buying BMA on the dip.
Thank you Jim.
black arrow
This was a good idea Alpha Dog, we are zeroing in on the profit target.
http://schrts.co/E2pXav
dont cry for us Argentina!
good one Jim Pearce think I will just wait to see where it lands near the upper Bollinger Band
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Janis Bell
I just placed my first order in SW for this one. As the market is closed, the spread was high and my limit order $77 was slightly above the current price $76.60 but below the Ask price of $85.30. I am trying to understand how to best do this. I appreciate the suggestions of Black Arrow, but don’t understand enough right now to execute them. When I put in $77 as my limit price, the bid price was $75. So I’d like to understand what would have been the best solution: [1] buy limit at the current price ($76.60) and hope it doesn’t open higher; [2] buy limit lower before the market opens in the hope of catching it as it drops, then try again tomorrow if I don’t catch it on the fall? [3] buy limit at a price still under Jim’s suggestion but higher than the current price?
Hoping some of your guys can set me straight on how to make the most of this service. I’ve been using a brokerage service for the past 16 years and haven’t had to learn any of this stuff myself. Thanks! 🙂
Larry Johnson
Janis,
I was doing the same thing as you. I watched the market open, saw that it was going to open higher, so I increased by limit to $78 and nailed it at $76.85. All still well below Jim’s $81 limit.
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black arrow
In the time it took me to write my message and mark up the chart the price has gone up yippee! So since I am back at it here is your simple candle stick lesson of the day. A red candle has the open at the top horizontal line the close is the bottom line. The white or clear candle is opposite say on todays candle the open was bottom horizontal and the close when it comes will be the horizontal top.
Watch for that trendline breakout to the upside!
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black arrow
Hi Janis,
This is good that you gave it a shot! You did not pay the ask before the open good for you. I am assuming you did fill the trade? If you have not yet then remember most brokers are happy to help you over the phone, if you need a bit of help. Buy limit at current would be OK and may work – you don’t need to worry about it going higher because if you choose limit they can only sell it to you at your specified price. If iyt is possible for you to buy after the market is open you can see prices at the time which is helpful. Previous close was 76.60 todays open was 76.61 so pretty close range there in actual price. You could have entered at current price which is what I often try, maybe you would have paid less, but we all feel a little lost at first so if you took a position at 77 that is still fine.
I am going to attach my chart which I just marked up, of BMA http://schrts.co/E2pXav
I know it is a bit to take in but I just want to show you a few things I think.
look at the top right corner above the picture we see it is up comparing today with yesterdays close. We also see the volume 11,263.
Come down to the main picture what we have in recent price action is a ‘FLAG’. Note my dashed red lines these are trend lines. Since 10/6 I’d say this stock has been in a short term decline – this is OK.
Sometimes I like to compare to Tai Chi in tai Chi we say that which goes up must first go down. See the widest red Candle that formed the low of the Flag. now todays is a tad higher. Today volume is low likely due to the Fed – Janet Yellen will release minutes of last months meeting. Everything stops and waits. After they make their statement then we get to see the markets reaction later this afternoon. To show you the Flag I made two more or less parallel lines. What we want to see is a trendline Breakout in price above the higher dashed red line.
Now I want to explain a few other lines. See the Blue line? That is the 50 day Moving average we want our stock to be above that – it is :^). at the right hand end of blue line is the dashed red centerline of Bollinger Bands that dashed red line is the 20 day moving avg. When we will be approaching the profit moment here is what we will see. The Candlestick for that happy day will be a clear or some say white candle. We will see that candle touch the upper bollinger Band YES we will be celebrating! Lets create an actual example of your new stock holding using the bollinger bands OK? look at SEP 15the candle was at the bottom band. after that it made an uptrend to the Candle of the 5th of October and hit the upper band. On 9/15 it closed at 72.97; 10/5 when it hit the upper band its close was 79.71 that was a 9.2% increase.
May the Force be with you Janis as well as all the members and Jim Pierce who has brought this to us
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Steve Blessing
This is my first post… Based on a buy for BMA below $81 and a stop loss at $72, are we suppose to sell when the price hits $72 or less or will we receive an e-mail/text message from SW directing us to sell the position at the stop loss price? I’m trying to figure out how the alert system works.
Steve Blessing
I found the answer to my question. We will receive an e-mil/text message when the stock closes the day at or below the stop loss price.
Jim Pearce
Yes. I am told text alerts will be activated later this week. Thank you.
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black arrow
Hi Steve,
Welcome to the service.
After you have bought the stock you want at the best price you see; then you would put in a stop loss – which means stop losing by selling remember to select ‘GTC’ – good til cancelled. You don’t really need to see an alert, because you have programmed the stock to sell at a certain price.
If you are somewhat new to trading stocks and know what the profit target will be, you can put in a more advanced type of order known as OCO – read one cancels other. This means the program sells the stock at your projected target OR at the recommended stop area.
I am new to this service but not new to trading, and want to mention not everyone likes the idea of a stop, those that do will say it helps you manage your investment. Those who do not may feel that it may be a self fulfilling proficy. Some may say to have a mental stop. Hope that is not confusing and I will say the stops Jim has suggested seem to be in good areas.
The real alert may be say a RED Banner in bold across top of page when you should buy a new recommendation. Please scroll down to Oct 11 to see Jim’s directions in response to an answer about receiving a cell ph alert.
Steve Blessing
Thanks for the information. I am new to this and want to make smart decisions and not emotional ones. I will use both the buy and sell limit orders in my trades. Thanks again for the info.
black arrow
Hi Steve,
A good thing about ‘one cancels other’ is lets say if you just had a stop and the day to take your moolah off the table arrives. There is one thing you would need to manually do right before you hit the sell button – that is cancel the stop order first.
Now remember according to a book I read on Day trading the high of the Day often comes before 10 AM. I don’t know what price you got in at and Its none of my business. I do know what price I got in atin my regular account I got in at 76.46, which means yesterdays close put me over the 4.2% mark. What I will be looking for this AM is on my chart I would like to see the iS for todays candlestick to hit or break through the upper Bollinger Band then I am out. put slightly differently if we add same amount as yesterday I am out.
Things look good on the chart for us Steve. http://schrts.co/E2pXav
I will quickly go over what is good. Rsi above 50 is an uptrend. MACD above 0.0 good I use the Price per cent oscillator [PPO] the blue histogram is good. Chaiken moolah flow is green green is good haha. Stoch RSI above 0.8 is good. I notice last trade at top of chart yesterday was 496thats a few more than I bt. I switched time frame to 10 minutes on my chart high of yesterday occurred at 11 AM. 10 minutes later it dropped to about 80. wait til after you take your profit then its OK to get emotional.
Cheers
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Steve Blessing
black arrow,
I just some research on OCO and like what it does. I will use them for my trades. Thanks again.
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Philip Lord
New to this service. Is it safe to assume to enter a trade at any time it is below max buy price regardless of the timing?
black arrow
Hi Philip,
There may be some stocks that will only stay in a certain price area for a brief time, I noticed Jim has mentioned to try to be timely in buying. Recently some stocks may be trading in a narrow range for a while so your reference to ‘any time’ . Usually it makes the most sense for us to trade when the market is open; although I have sometimes traded after hours, but there are less people trading then so it may not take.
A primary thing to look for is the bid/ask spread if it is a wide range do not trade ‘at market’ choose limit and fill in the price you want. Of course you may understand some of this already, its not possible for me to know that – just trying to be helpful.
Best Wishes
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black arrow
Im am out here is my formula:
end – start / by start X 100 = %
79.75 – 76.46 /76.46 X 100 = 4.3 %
Todays candlestick as of now is the Ominous Hanging Man
remember bears make $ bulls make $ but Pigs get slaughtered
ok back to my pulled pork in the crock pot
Larry Johnson
Black Arrow:
I’m at (($80.37-$76.93)/76.93)*100 = 4.72%
I’m somewhat above the assigned targeted return of 4.2% as well. I’m out.
LJ
black arrow
Excellent Larry,
Best Wishes for continued success
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the phantom
question: in the case of BMA I have reached the target return %, should I wait for a sell alert or should I sell. I noticed that you have not sold yet, but some followers have sold once the target return % 4.2% was reached. are you holding for a specific reason?
Dramatic License
Ditto this question. I’ve reached the return, but was figuring we weren’t out yet because there is more to possibly gain (and I got in early at a lower price (76 and change). Sell or wait for notice. I was assuming wait.
Jim Pearce
BMA is still trading below our buy limit price of $81, so I will not be closing out this position until we reach our target gain based on the highest price any of our subscribers may have paid for it (which equate to the Target Price of $84.40 price shown in the portfolio table). However, if you have reached our target return because you paid a lower price than that for BMA, then closing out your position is fine.
Dramatic License
Thanks, Jim. I suspect it will still go up, and am currently planning to hold longer, but was curious.
Jim Pearce
You may want to put a stop loss order beneath to lock in your gain. That way you still make our target return if it drops, but also leaves the door open for more upside if it continues to go up.
Dramatic License
Thanks for the suggestion. I updated my stop loss order.
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Ado Casagrande
i paid $76.61 and moved my stop loss to $78.00 and let it ride and see if it go,s up …WAAAHOOO. so far so good
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black arrow
Hi Ado,
I hope all our members succeed in the overll picture. I just want to point something out I am looking at a chart of BMA and will supply a link : http://schrts.co/E2pXav
Lets look at the evidence, in the top price chart area yesterdays candlestick was what is called a Bearish engulfing, this is usually followed by a downtrend. On the positive side of the ledger candles are short term predictors we can see how it wnt down very recently – and then rebounded. At the top we see someone bt 517 shares last night. It is above the important 50 day MA it is above the center of the bollinger bands, so you may need to hang in there and wait for another short uptrend.
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Dramatic License
Any thoughts on BMA? Got bumped out on my stop price today, but wondering if buying back in is a good plan since we are still far away from the gains planned.
Jim Pearce
Its sitting right on top of its 50 day moving average price, so I’d say wait to see if it breaks below it before buying back in.
Dramatic License
Thanks, Jim, I think that’s wise.
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black arrow
Jim,
I am curious if BMA has recorded another buy signal in your system? On 10/26 the last trade was a buy of 1113 shares and it closed at 77 the candle straddles the 50 day MA. I am wondering if this is a “play it Again Sam” candidate?
Jim Pearce
Since we never closed out this position, our RPM will not issue a new signal while it is still open. Also, keep in mind that our model does not use technical indicators to generator buy signals, so once it gives a stock the green light it remains green until either reaching the end of its target holding period, achieving our target return and then being stopped out, or a breakdown in one or more of the fundamental metrics we are using to score it.
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black arrow
Holy Banco Macro!
It had a wild ride up to 78.64, now its back to 77.11.
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