Buy Alert: Cardinal Health (CAH)

TRADE INSTRUCTIONS
Date: 
November 22, 2016
Name: Cardinal Health, Inc.
Symbol: CAH
Type: Open
Limit: Buy below $73

TRADE TARGETS
Holding Period: 
3 months
Target Return: 12.3%
Annualized Return:
 49.2%
Target Price: $82
Stop Loss Level: $65.25

COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Cardinal Health is a healthcare services and products company that operates through two segments: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The Pharmaceutical segment distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical, over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products. The Medical segment distributes a range of medical, surgical and laboratory products, and provides services to hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and other healthcare providers.

TRADE RATIONALE
Of all the companies in the S&P 500 Index, only one of them currently earns a perfect score of ‘10’ from my IDEAL Stock Rating System, and that one is Cardinal Health. A month ago its share price took a 15% hit after the company released quarterly earnings that beat expectations, but came with a warning that full-year profits may come in a little below original guidance due to margin compression resulting from the ACA (Affordable Care Act).

Since then the stock has recovered about a third of that loss and leveled off near $70, which is about $3 below its 50DMA and $5 below its upper Bollinger Band so it is still in rally mode. More importantly, the subjective factors that conspired to drive its share price down in the first place occurred prior to the U.S. presidential election when an assumed victory by Hillary Clinton was suppressing the outlook for the entire healthcare sector.

But the environment for healthcare stocks could improve markedly under a Trump administration that has already vowed to roll back the most onerous aspects of the ACA. We may not know those details until after Trump is done filling out his cabinet positions, but once he reveals his intentions for “Obamacare” I expect higher quality healthcare stocks like CAH to experience a bounce similar to how financial stocks have performed over the past two weeks.

Note: This stock is optionable

Stock Talk

Anubis

Alpha_Dog_510

Im in, Thank you Jim.

Sbless

Steve Blessing

Got in at $69.50. Now for the ride!!

black arrow

black arrow

Hi Steve,
Yesterrday I got in at 69.95
Happy Thanksgiving

Rick

Rick

Just got in at 70.01

Dan

Dan

Can anyone tell me the best way to option this? Seems that I should buy a Put at the Target price for February–though I see there is no Feb option, just Jan & Mar. Should I do a spread to hedge? Etc.

Still new at this–thanks!

HowieA

HowieA

Hi Dan – I don’t know what the “best” way is to use options on this. But, I can tell you what I did this morning. I sold the CAH Mar 17 70 strike Put and bought the Mar 17 65 Put for a net credit of $1.78. This is a very conservative trade. The most I can make is $178 per contract. I can loose $500 per contract, less the $178 I made by selling the spread, or $322. But, I can make my profit without CAH increasing in value. In other words, all I sold was time, which will keep marching on. Of course, if the stock goes down in value, I can loose up to $322 per contract. But, since Jim Pearce thinks the stock will go to $82, it is a risk I am willing to take, since I make my maximum profit if CAH stays above $70. This type of trade is used frequently, with much success, by Jim Fink in his Options for Income publication. Tell me what you decide to do. Howie

Dan

Dan

Thanks HowieA. That sounds like a Jim Fink move, which is another area I am learning with OFI. I may try that next time to squeeze a little more dough out of the trade.

black arrow

black arrow

Hi Dan, I like to be helpful, but I have a disclaimer I am not an Outstanding Options Trader although I do trade them. I can give you some interesting sources of free info on them but first here is what I did in my ‘regular’ acc yesterday. I feel better about it now sincce CAH has gone up and I am making some moolah already. I bought the Call CAH Jan 20 2017 70 I paid 2.51 it seemed like a lower price comparing with others. I took the approx holding time, to pick an expiration. It is 58 days to expiration.
Now for the option tips this sounds like an odd name, but google TASTY TRADE, and also look up Dough I like the free recs from Tom Preston from dough.
hope that is helpful
Happy Thanksgiving

Dan

Dan

Thanks Black Arrow (I feel like I was just advised by a crusader or such) 🙂

Maria R

Maria R

Hi Dan:
First let me say that I am still learning about options and spreads by doing since joining OFI 2 years ago.
Here are the results of my experience/experiments with SW trades:
LMAT bought the stock@ $20
BMA bought and sold the stock per SW with a little loss
GNC sold naked put and got assigned cost $13.27 (incl commision)
Dlph sold naked put, expired did not enter another one cuz it had run up
VLO sold 2 rounds of naked puts, last expired 11/18/16 when Jim sent alert to sell VLO got $$$ 🙂 Thanks Jim.
BKE sold put spread 25/22.50 got assigned, cost $23.29 (Incl commission) (Thanks, black arrow for the encouragement).
RGR and CAH bought the stocks.
Buying the stocks is more capital intensive but the actual $ gain is bigger than options but the ROI is higher with options. I guess I prefer actual $ than a theoretical return.
Also, I cannot trade spreads on my tax deferred account, only cash secured naked puts, so the actual after tax return is better with naked puts and stocks for me. And since SW has a fast turn around, these are short term gains (or loss–we hope not), and for me, is better palced in a tax deferred account.
I hope this helps

Dan

Dan

Yes it did, thanks all for the posts!

Maria R

Maria R

PS The other down side I see to trading options is you can be left holding the options/stock at a time when Jim issues an alert to sell.

black arrow

black arrow

Having lived in the Boston area for a number of years; if we pronounce the ticker symbol CAH, thats how people from that area pronounce Car.
Lets see I did CAH two ways. I bt the stock, so Far my gain is 1.64% based on my entry price have made 115.01.

Then in an effort to spend less $, I bt the 20 Jan 17 70 call my purchase price was 2.51 and last price was 3.10 today I gained $157.50 % wise it was up 20.19% cumulative this one is up 169.50 and 22.51%. [the 20 means the date of expiration in January which is out abt 56 days. 17 refers to the year 2017, 70 is the ‘strike price’, at this point it is ITM: In-The- Money. When I bt it it was near the $ my assumption was it could increase. Tasty Trade has made studies showing the optimum number of days is 41 this would point to the earlier expiration date in January.

Maria R

Maria R

Hi Black arrow: Thank you for taking the time to post. It is very helpful to me and I am sure to others. Let me see if I got it right:
You entered CAH BTO Jan 70 C at slightly OTM.
When do you sell the call? do you have any parameters?
I had previously dabbled in selling calls and was not very sucessful. So I tend to shy away from buying calls.
Thank you for showing another way to skin a cat.

black arrow

black arrow

CAH Jan 20 2017 70 Call When I BTO it was near the money then it became ITM. I paid 2.51 right now it says it is worth 3.16 today it has gained 60 in value, day % gain of 6.5% cumulative gain 237.00 and cum% gain 31.47%.
Guess I will check the chart: http://schrts.co/jvU8hT
The chart shows it was forming a pennant, then had a breakout last trading daY AND IT continues today. Hey its up to cum % of 33.47% The actual stock in my IRA is up cumulative 173.01 and 2.47%. slipping this in I read an article from Barrons and bt [ BHBK] based on the art on small banks 20% upside it says. they have a very good price on electronic version of Barrons u should get it.

Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson

In at 69.98

Skippie2000

Skippie2000

I would like to know how some subscribers are getting in on the stock 3 hours before I even get the alert. Will you please explain ? Thank you.

black arrow

black arrow

I didn’t see one either but it always can be helpful to be obssesive

Anubis

Alpha_Dog_510

I keep checking the Investing Daily website for New Alerts before they get sent out. 🙂

Happy Turkey Day everyone.

Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson

I usually have the web page open as I watch the market.
Got in when Jim posted it up here.
It wasn’t too long after that when I got the text alert on my phone for it.

black arrow

black arrow

Thanks for a new trade Jim,
Off to making Pie shells for me.
Thanks for your part in creating the dough,
Happy Holiday Folks

Arun Verma

Arun Verma

I received the email and text 2 hours after the CAH alert was posted on the web.

Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson

During the last few minutes of the market today, someone (or some entity) made two large stock purchases of 261,000 shares each for a total of 522,000 shares @ $72.10 per share!!!! Someone is in love with this stock. Hope it pans out for them….and for us!

Skippie2000

Skippie2000

Why the big drop in Cardinal today? I do not see any news. Are they expecting a bad earnings report at the end of the month?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Not that I know of, but I am watching it closely to see what emerges. Could just be general fear over Trump going after the drug companies, which I think is over blown in which case we may get a bounce once earnings do come out (CAH is scheduled to release earnings on 2/7).

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Given the big jump in CAH shares after releasing its quarterly report this morning (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cardinal-beats-2q-profit-forecasts-121250650.html) , I am raising the stop price on it to $76 to protect half of our targeted gain. The target hold period for CAH expires in three weeks (February 22), and I have a target price of $82 on it which is now within reach given its surge above $79 this morning.

Rick W.

Rick W.

Was there an alert on the raise in stop loss price that I missed? If there was no alert, I think it would be a good idea to have one whenever you are making a changes like this or it could get missed. Just my two cents.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

I will be issuing an Alert today that will update all three of our holdings that issued a quarterly report yesterday, including CAH. Thank you.

Roger Hill

Roger Hill

Closed CAH170317C70 today for a 63.93% net (after fees) return corresponding to a 303% annualized return.
Thanks Jim for another winner.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Nice trade Roger. Glad to hear it!

Derek: Las Vegas, NV

Derek: Las Vegas, NV

Nice!

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