USANA Health Sciences
If our thesis for owning USNA is correct, then we should see its share price rebound when the company releases its quarterly earnings report after the market close on February 7. I don’t expect to see a marked improvement in its past operating results from its current restructuring plan yet, but its forward guidance could catch the stock market by surprise. (Note: I will add Stock Talk commentary beneath this article after the stock market opens on February 8).
USNA has flatlined since we added it to our portfolio at the end of November. Thus far the 2-for-1 stock split the company engineered earlier that month doesn’t seem to have done anything to help its share price, but that event coincided with a shakeup to its management team that the market is still digesting.
The few Wall Street analysts that follow the company clearly feel it is undervalued, with an average one-year price target of $79.33, which is about 25% higher than its recent price of $63. But that’s part of the problem; only three firms follow USNA, and with a market cap of just $1.5 billion it doesn’t show up on the radar of most mutual funds and institutional investors. If this week’s earnings report doesn’t get the stock moving, I will probably not extend its three-month target holding period when it expires at the end of this month.
Stock Talk
Jim Pearce
From today’s alert covering CAH, GILD and USNA: “USANA Health Sciences (USNA) posted a profit that came in on the low end of guidance, but that was all it took for it to suffer an 11% drubbing this morning. However, its opening trade at $54.35 is still slightly above our stop price, and it trades on considerably less volume than GILD so the worst may already be behind it. Nevertheless, if USNA closes below $54 then I will sell it.”
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Gompps
My stop loss was triggered, selling at $57 for a loss of $4.8685/share.
Janis Bell
Mine was triggered at 54.50 (I did the recommended 54 stop and the 54.50 limit — I think I got the order backwards). and am now pretty bummed at the $8.50 loss per share.
Jim, I’m having some challenges with this: if I don’t put in a stop loss, plus the very uncooperative internet (which works intermittently) when I don’t put in a stop and miss the chance to execute an alert in a timely way, I get hammered (e.g. GNC). Put it’s really annoying to have a temporary drop trigger the sale, lose out on the $3.50 upswing. So is there some way to set up a stop to trigger only after the stock closes below a certain price?
Jim Pearce
I’m sorry to hear about that; it appears the prices got reversed in your order since USNA never traded all the way down to $54 yesterday. I set the stop prices just below short term technical support to allow enough room for a stock to drop some, and bounce back if the support level holds up (which it did in the case of USNA). But if a stock breaks through short term support, as GILD did yesterday, then it may continue to fall further which is why I sell them at that point (which is what is happening with GILD today). So, if your broker will not allow you specify a stop order only be executable based on closing price, then the only choice you have is to track it manually and enter a sell order when a stock closes below its stop level. I realize that may be difficult for you since you are out of the country, but ultimately it is up to your broker to determine what type of order they are willing to execute on your behalf. You could set up automatic alerts for all your holdings to notify you when a stop price is breached, so at least you are aware of it the moment it happens and can then enter the sell order to avoid a GNC type of event.
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Gompps
I had the stop loss set at $54 as instructed. All I can think of is that the price had gone back up between the triggering and execution. Although, from what I can tell, the low yesterday was $54.25 so I don’t know why it was triggered at all.
James Fletcher
The extended hours low was 49.05. I don’t usually trade ‘extended hours’, but happened to look because of the huge drop and saw it was below my stop. That allowed me to cancel the stop before the morning open an thus not get stopped out if the price remained that low.
Maybe you had extended hours active for that trade
Janis Bell
That could be what happened, since I put the stop loss in during extended hours. I am either working before the market opens (usually) or just after closing.
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Derek: Las Vegas, NV
Hi Janis, just as Jim stated. Instead of constantly having to watch the stock, it’s a good idea to setup a price alert. If your broker does not have that feature you can set one up with a different company, such as Yahoo. There are many external websites that allow you to setup a watch list/portfolio that will also allow you to set price targets. I typically have my price alerts set up to text my cell phone and then I can decide what I want to do. I prefer this method because I don’t like using automatic stop losses.
Derek
black arrow
great idea derek in on the webinar Saturday? My wife is working so I am fer sur. here is a link to a marijuana wait for a pullback http://schrts.co/dWrAXk
Derek: Las Vegas, NV
How was the webinar?
Derek
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Derek: Las Vegas, NV
Hi BA,
Not sure if you noticed, but a few days after you sent the chart on TWMJF the stock went all the way up to $10.25. TWMJF has since dropped back down to the original price, did you get in on the trade? Definitely would’ve been a nice short term trade if you closed out prior to its reversal.
I hope all is well!
Derek
black arrow
Di Derek,
Here is something free if u r interested https://stockcharts.com/newsletter/. I missed TWMJF- oh well. Things are great with me, but there is never enough momentum ya Know? Late April was super, took the fam down to RI visited several Colleges the mid -kid perked up when he set foot on WPI, Older kid like Clark. We all liked the Breakers!
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Dramatic License
Enjoying the comeback today!
Dramatic License
USNA with another move today! Glad to see it coming back.
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