What if you held a party and nobody came? RGR released fourth quarter and full-year 2016 results on February 22 that reflected a 21% increase in net sales and 43% jump in earnings per share, but even that wasn’t enough to break the stock out of its narrow trading range. It did climb 2% on that news, but that only restored it to its value from two weeks prior.

The problem isn’t with its past results, but with future expectations. A lot of weapons (and ammo) were bought in 2016 under the assumption that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election and then implement tougher gun laws. Trump’s upset victory was also a win for gun owners, and lessened the urgency for them to stock up on firearms.

Or so the thinking goes. Trump is nothing if not unpredictable, and in the past he has not been a staunch advocate for gun rights. With more important legislative items on his agenda coming up for debate later this month, he might sacrifice looser gun control laws in exchange for more support for his tax reform package and changes to Obamacare.

If so, then the run on guns and ammo might resume, in which case RGR could once again be on the rise. Our target holding period for this position does not expire until May 15, so there is still plenty of time for this holding to pay off.