March 2017 in Review

For the first time since Donald Trump won the presidential election in November, the stock market failed to record a monthly increase in March after four consecutive months of solid gains. As Trump is quickly learning, wanting to get something done in Washington and actually getting it done can be an exercise in frustration, so it’s no coincidence that the market slowed down when it came time to put all those campaign promises into action.

That reality check is good news for our portfolio, which selects stocks based on proven valuation metrics and not hastily conceived perceptions of what may, or may not be, a “Trump stock.” For example, retail stocks got slammed in January and February when Trump was calling for a border adjustment tax that would simply increase costs for U.S. consumers, but many of them are on the upswing now that the likelihood of such a tax getting passed into law has diminished.

If that means in the months ahead that we will see a more targeted approach to governing, then stocks should resume trading based on their individual merits and not as part of a much larger paradigm.

It’s still possible that we will see new health care legislation passed later this year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that every pharmaceutical company, hospital and medical equipment manufacturer will be impacted by it the same. I wouldn’t be surprised if a watered-down version of a border adjustment tax is also passed, but only after enough exceptions are added to it so that companies that have no viable domestic sources as an alternative to foreign suppliers are exempt.

As Trump will soon learn, the same congressional representatives that he is counting on to pass his legislation must also answer to their constituencies which include the very same people and companies affected by those actions.

That being the case, April should be a transitional month for the stock market as companies are reporting first quarter results at the same time some of Trump’s legislative agenda comes into sharper focus. Instead of the rising tide that has lifted all boats since the election, I expect to see a shift towards a stormy sea that pushes some boats higher while others slide down from the crest of the wave.

After closing out four trades in March while adding four new holdings, our portfolio starts this month with a total of nine open positions as summarized below.

After adding Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) on March 2 at less than $63, the stock jumped 10% over the next couple of weeks before pulling back briefly for a breather. It resumed its climb a week ago and is approaching my target price of $69.55, so I will raise its stop price if it gets above $70 since we still have two months remaining in our target holding period. There was no specific news I know of to explain its rapid rise over the past month, but clearly someone is buying into it.

Best Buy (BBY) has also been on a tear lately, jumping 10% during the last week of March on no apparent news. For that reason, I closed out this position on Friday for a 50% annualized gain since it moved above our target price with only a week left in its holding period. This stock has been a trader’s dream for the past year, jumping every three months like clockwork as the company continues to surprise analysts with its resilience.

I wish I could say the same about Carbonite (CARB), but thus far it hasn’t gained any traction. It briefly spiked above $21 on March 8 but has spent most of the past six weeks very close to our entry price near $20. The stock popped last week when the company successfully placed a private debt offering, but other than that there hasn’t been much news out of the company lately.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) flattened out last month after enjoying a strong start to the year in January and February. The good news is it isn’t giving much of those gains back, and may just be catching its breath before beginning the second leg up towards our target price of $37. Cisco recently completed its acquisition of AppDynamics, so it will be interesting to see to what extent that impact future guidance when the company releases quarterly earnings in May.

Since adding CVS Health (CVS) to the portfolio in late January it has been all over the map, spending roughly equal time above and below our entry price equator line. The recent trend is working in our favor, facilitated by last month’s failure of the AHCA legislation. It may take one more set of quarterly results to propel the stock higher, but there is plenty of time for that with twelve weeks remaining in our target holding period.

I just added Ford Motor (F) last week for reasons stated in that alert. This week the company announced sales results for March that came in a little better (i.e., less bad) than what it guided for, but with GM reporting worse than expected results the same day the overall take on the auto sector was negative. Ford has been going out of its way lately to tamp down expectations for near-term results, so anything other than an awful quarterly earnings report at the end of this month could drive the stock upward.

So far I have successfully resisted the temptation to make bad puns about a company that is known for making men’s underwear, but if Hanesbrands (HBI) goes in the crapper then I may have to renege on that commitment. But so far it is riding up nicely, about 4% higher since we added it to the portfolio on March 9. Hopefully the Bollinger Bands will stretch out a bit more when the company releases quarterly earnings the third week of April.

Speaking of men’s clothing, Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) jumped 10% last week but it isn’t clear precisely why. Don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled with the gain, but would feel better if I knew the reason for it. It could be its recently announced marketing agreement with Under Armour or diminishing concerns over a potential BAT, but either way this position is close to being back in positive territory for us after spending most of March at a loss.

It’s too soon to judge STMicroelectronics (STM), which was added to the portfolio a few weeks ago and is right about where we bought it. For a few days there it was looking a little shaky, briefly dropping below $15 the week after we added it to the portfolio. But it quickly jumped up close to $16 before sliding back towards our entry price.

The same can be said for weapons manufacturer Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR), albeit over a longer period which makes this holding a bit of a dud thus far. The company reported excellent results for 2016 but is trading on speculation as to how much of a positive or negative impact Trump will have on future gun sales. We’ll get one more set of quarterly results before our target holding expires in May, which should determine if this holding will be able to hit our target.

Stock Talk

Michael S.

Michael S.

Hi Jim F.,
Is DHR also part of the portfolio? I opened a short bear position in DHR when you suggested.
Any update on DHR?

Thanks,
Michael S.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Micheal. Not sure if you meant to address this question to Jim Fink or me since we both have issued short recommendation on DHR recently. My “3TL” picks are not part of the SW portfolio so we do not track them. I put them out there from time to time as suggestions, but leave it up to each of you to determine what, if anything, to do with them. Since issuing that alert on 3/24 (https://www.investingdaily.com/systematic-wealth/alerts/30746/3tl-alert-danaher-corp-dhr/) DHR is down less than 1%, but I expect more volatility as its next quarterly earnings release in two weeks gets closer.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

We close out our position in Best Buy for a nice gain, and then Kohl’s hires one of its marketing execs as its new chief marketing officer: http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2017/04/10/kohls-hires-best-buy-executive-as-chief-marketing.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo. That’s good news from a long-term perspective; will be interesting to see how much of a boost that gives the stock in the near-term. It jumped up $1 on the news Monday and has been holding steady since then.

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