Over the past fourteen years, our Rapid Profits Matrix has performed remarkably well. On average, our trades have tripled the return of the S&P 500 Index over the identical holding periods. However, in six of those fourteen years the index has beaten our average return, usually in years immediately preceding or including a major stock market correction.

Although our RPM beat the index handily in 2016, it is lagging a bit so far this year. Of course, it is still far too early to declare a winner – after all, the year isn’t even halfway over yet – but the pattern is worth noting given the stock market’s historically high valuation combined with President Trump’s difficulty enacting his pro-growth agenda that has been fueling the stock market since the November election.

After March and April had resulted in no net gain for the index, I thought investors were beginning to pull in their horns. But the 1% gain registered in May – a month that included the appointment of a special counsel to investigate Trump’s alleged ties to Russia – now has me wondering if this may turn out to be one of those years that includes a major stock market correction.

If that turns out to be the case, then momentum stocks will most likely suffer the most since their valuations are based as much on optimism and hope as they are on revenue and earnings. That’s one reason why I don’t recommend many momentum stocks, and have a short target holding period for the few we that we hold.

That’s also why I am keeping my stop loss prices fairly tight beneath our entry prices. I don’t enjoy selling a stock like Bofi Holding (BOFI) less than a month after buying it since it was down only 8%, but limiting losses is just as important as maximizing gains in an unforgiving stock market that demands instant gratification. For the same reason, I let CVS Health (CVS) and Kohl’s (KSS) expire at a slight loss, and did not extend Argan (AGX) since there was no empirical data to suggest that any of them were likely to recover soon.

My decision to extend Ford Motor (F) on May 30 for another month was confirmed almost immediately when it announced on June 1 stronger than expected new vehicle sales for the month of May, pushing its share price up 3% that morning. That still leaves us a little below breakeven, but close enough to eke out a gain in this holding by the end of June.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is recovering from a disappointing quarterly earnings report released on May 17 that included a 1% drop in total revenue. That news pushed its share price down 10%, wiping out most of our sizable gain. But we are still up almost 4%, and CSCO should recover some of that lost profit over the remainder of this month if I am correct in my assessment of the type of stocks that will lead the market in June.

I’m not sure I can say the same for Carbonite (CARB), which crested near $22 on May 1 only to retreat below $19 by the end of the month. That erased all of our gain built up over the past three months and then some, leaving us at a 6% deficit with only two weeks remaining in our target holding period. There hasn’t been much news on CARB to explain its sudden price movements in either direction, other than a better than expected quarterly earnings report released on May 5, so the big price drop since then is a bit of a mystery.

It’s no mystery why Facebook (FB) is up 8% since we bought it seven weeks ago. On May 3 the company once again exceeded analysts’ estimates with first quarter results that reflected a 73% YOY increase in diluted EPS. We still have six weeks left in our target hold period for FB, but if it hits our target share price of $157 before then I will most likely close out this position at that time.

We’ve had some fun with puns for our most recent portfolio addition, Ferrari NV (RACE), and there is a lot to smile about given its 6% gain in only two weeks. Ferrari reported record quarterly results a month ago, which has propelled it to the front of the pack of global automobile companies. Car sales in Europe are accelerating as its economy gets back on track, so we do not anticipate seeing this holding spin out before its target holding period crosses the finish line in August.

I have (mostly) resisted the temptation to make bad puns at the expense of underwear manufacturer Hanesbrands (HBI), and will honor my vow not to do so provided it continues to ride up the charts. We had a 10% gain in HBI through May 10 after the company released decent earnings the week prior, but there has been some slippage since then shrinking our profit to 8%. But we still have five weeks left in our target holding period for HBI, so we’ll see how much more starch is left in this holding.

We’re pretty much at breakeven on Jernigan Capital (JCAP) three weeks into it, but small-cap stocks like JCAP tend to move more sporadically than more widely followed large-cap companies. That’s why most of its news releases, such as this one two weeks ago regarding its most recent transaction, had little effect on its share price. But those results will be reflected in its next set of quarterly results and forward guidance released the first week of August, so we should see some meaningful price movement by that time.

Conversely, we have already seen a lot of price movement in STMicroelectronics NV (STM) since we added it to our portfolio in mid-March. It’s been up as much as 10% and down as much as 7% since then, and is now sitting at a 5% gain with two weeks left in our target holding period. But it’s difficult to generate much excitement with tech jargon-heavy press releases like this one, so I’m probably going to let this position terminate on June 15 barring any substantive developments in the meantime.

Our target holding period for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LTD (TSM) expires on June 5, and I will also allow it to terminate since it will be engaged in a battle for market share in Japan that will most likely cut into profits in the near term. We have accumulated an 8%+ gain in this holding in less than two months, and options traders hopefully have done much better than that.

June will be a very active month for our portfolio, with the holding periods (plus extensions) for five of our positions expiring over the next thirty days. That is by design since I felt the second half of the year would trade very differently than the first half. I believe the so-called “Trump trade” is drawing to a close, to be replaced a more disciplined approach to valuing equities. If so, then the type of stocks favored by our Rapid Profits Matrix should start rising to the top.