January Options Update
We have three call options expiring this week, two of which (IVZ and PDCO) are presently trading well out-of-the-money and will most likely expire worthless at the end of this week. The third call option on HRB is trading very close to its strike price so we may end slightly in-the-money by Friday’s close.
Needless to say, the stock market’s sudden swoon during Q4 was exactly what we did not need for these options positions that were opened in August and September near the market’s peak. That being the case, several readers have asked if there is anything they can do to recoup some of their investment.
Since none of these positions are part of two-legged trade, there is no way to roll them out in time or down in price as you could with a spread. Each trade was an independent bet on the price of the underlying stock rising in value by the option’s expiration date.
Therefore, any subsequent trades involving the same underlying stock would be a new bet on the future direction of its price, no different than opening a new position on an entirely different stock. That said, for those of you wishing to roll any of these three trades I offer the following suggestions.
H&R Block (HRB)
With the benefit of hindsight, I would have closed this trade two months ago when HRB traded above $28 and this option could be sold for $4. At the time, I felt Q1 of 2019 would energize the stock with tax season approaching so I held onto it.
I still believe that will be the case and expect HRB to get back above $28 within the next three months. If that occurs, then paying $2.25 for the $24 call option expiring on April 18 would recoup most of the $2.15 we paid for the original call option.
Invesco (IVZ)
When I originally opened this trade, I correctly predicted that the stock market would become skittish in Q4 but incorrectly anticipated that investors would respond by moving their money into Invesco’s low-cost, market-neutral funds. Instead, Invesco’s AUM (assets under management) decreased by 4.1% in December.
IVZ bottomed out below at $15.38 on December 26 and has since rallied to above $18. IVZ has some pretty strong technical resistance near $21.75, so buying the $17 call option that expires on April 19 for $1.95 would fully recoup our original cost of $2.25 if the stock continues on its current upward trajectory.
Patterson Companies (PDCO)
PDCO also appears to have bottomed out last month, trading below $19 on December 27. Since then it has climbed back above $22, a nice recovery but still below our original $24 strike price. The stock has short term resistance near $25.50 which is only $3 above where it is currently trading.
Factoring in the cost of the premium, there isn’t enough upside potential to justify rolling this trade. Earlier today you could buy the $22 strike expiring on April 19 for $1.90, leaving only $1.60 in potential profit which is considerably less than the $2.75 limit we recommended for the original option. In this case, I’d let this one go.
Stock Talk
Stanley
IVZ filled @ 1.79
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Brian G.
Hi Jim,
1/18/19 I was assigned on HRB and am just sitting on it at the moment. Any advice on selling covered calls against it?
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Jim Pearce
Hi Brian. We did not recommend selling a put on HRB, so I have no official recommendation to share with you. That said, as stated above I expect HRB to rally to $28 by April so I would not sell a covered call against it until then. HRB is scheduled to release its next set of quarterly results during the second week of March, so that is when I’d take a close look at doing something with the stock. Until then, I’d just sit on it and collect the next dividend that should be paid in late February/early March.
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