5/6/13: Linn Energy Selloff an Opportunity

Another month, another bad review for Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE) from Barron’s, which has just published an update on allegations of accounting derring-do that thoroughly failed to impress the market in February. The thrust now as then was that Linn’s overvalued, its rollup strategy doomed and its performance disappointing. The distributions under underwritten in part by hedges that will eventually come off the books, which is the part that’s credible.

As for comparing Linn’s valuation with that of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and other C corps, the article ignores overall MLP valuations, investors’ growing preference for regular income, as well as the common temptation to defer taxes on that income for many years, and possibly forever.

It also ignores some important numbers. Like 34 percent, which was the effective tax rate Linn Energy takeover target Berry Petroleum (NYSE: BRY) paid on its earnings last year. Institutions and mutual funds make up 93 percent of Berry’s shareholder base. Those that wish to keep shares of Linn affiliate Linn Co (Nasdaq: LNCO) after the merger due to be concluded by June 30 get to retain an income stream from the old Berry assets, now shielded from the corporate income tax. Or they can sell and keep the 20 percent deal premium.

Keep in mind that Berry shares are now trading roughly at Linn’s original offer price, while many comparable stocks have sagged in the interim. And also of course that Linn can pay that premium and still increase make a deal immediately accretive to its cash flow and distributions, thanks to its premium valuation.

That premium may be a byproduct of the units’ spectacular run since the IPO, or it could be just down to plain old tax arbitrage. Say you’re the controlling shareholder of an oil company. Would you rather pay a third of earnings out in corporate income tax or sell to a master limited partnership in exchange for units which will defer most of the tax bill for many years and possibly permanently upon death? The Berry deal confers a first-mover advantage on Linn in the race to shield the most energy profits from the corporate income tax. The fact that Linn has a bad quarter or that it’s got a lot of room for error is going to be overshadowed soon enough by Berry’s added heft and other deals, now that the company has secured $1 billion in extra bank credit.

That was the point Wells Fargo made today in response to the Barron’s piece. “We continue to believe LINE’s distribution is secure and poised to grow at a mid-single-digit annual growth rate over the next five years,” the Wells Fargo analyst wrote. Also, “we continue to believe the LNCO financing vehicle provides the company with a competitive advantage and could help both support distribution growth and improve Linn’s leverage ratios over the coming years.”

The timing of the Barron’s piece is curious, coming as it did the weekend before an ex-dividend date and ahead of the expected merger consummation. The only “new news” was the update on Linn’s disappointing quarter and the fact that there were now names attached to what had previously been anonymous sources.

These are not names patient Linn investors need to sweat. The proprietor of the bearishly disposed hedge fund cited started this shop only in November, reportedly with just $50 million in assets. Among those on the other end of this trade is the investing legend Leon Cooperman, whose Omega Advisors fund held $150 million worth of Linn at year-end. Reputation and size aren’t everything in the investing game, of course, But they can provide important clues. We’re sticking with our call to buy LINE below $40.    

 

Stock Talk

Tj Schoenlein

Tj Schoenlein

A wise investor would be very wise to ignore the Barron’s of this world. Their single objective is to sell their papers, magazines and like. Making news is their game – true or false…it doesn’t matter.

James C Kauer

James C Kauer

I appreciate the timely comments on Linn.

Alex Loeb

Alex Loeb

Can’t you get an editor who knows good grammar including when and how to punctuate? This almost needs an interpreter.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Thanks for reading, Alex. You missed a coma between “good grammar” and “including when and how to punctuate.”

BILLYD

William Didonato

IT SEEMS THAT THE SHORTS ARE HAVING A FIELD DAY WITH LINN ENERGY, BUT WHEN THEY GET BURNED THE SHAREHOLDER WILL HAVE THE FIELD DAY. I WONDER HOW MANY SHORT SHARES THE WRITER AND HIS FAMILY OF FRIENDS HAVE ACCUMULATED , HE SHOULD KNOW HIS DAY IS COMING TO EAT CROW AND.BURN IN HELL.

TC Investments

Andrew Trautmann

I still do not understand Linn’s hedge book accounting . LGCY and VNR do not appear as complicated . After all hedges simply even out the “bumps” in the commodity prices over time. Am I missing something here ? Looks like Linn can’t cover their distribution and had a terrible Q1. Signed : perplexed and long LINN

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Linn can certainly cover its distributions on an annual basis, since the Q1 disruptions were mostly seasonal. The problem is that the (perfectly legitimate) hedge accounting could have been used to overstate present-day distributable cash flow with purchases of in the money puts, a practice Linn has halted in response to claims that it was trying to do just that. Linn’s capital and tax advantages easily outweigh its operational issues for the moment. It’s certainly risky, which is why the yield is so high. But there’s no reason to panic or sell here.

Vinod Motiani

Vinod Motiani

has roger conrad departed from MLP?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Yes indeed

Vincent Esposito

Vincent Esposito

Hi Igor…do you think the BRY deal is off the table here? I am a long term investor but the recent price action is worrysome. I’d appreciate your thoughts. thank you.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Hi Vincent,
There is no question but that the recent price action is worrisome, and the block sell orders that have hit the tape in recent days are certainly suggestive of selling by an institution. The concern is mainly over the delay in SEC approval for the shareholder votes needed to seal the Beryy merger, despite the filing by Linn of an amended S4 form with the SEC last week. On this topic, I can only take the company’s assurances that the merger will proceed at face value for now. I know that at least one brokerage has speculated about the possibility of a higher offer for Berry either from Linn or an alternate suitor. But in the absence of new facts, I think the prudent course is to hold on despite the misgivings until more information becomes available. Hope this helps.

Robert Zeller

Robert Zeller

Have you seen the most recent Barron’s? Another
rather lengthy article on LINN.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

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