07/02/13: Linn Energy

We’re downgrading Linn Energy (NSDQ: LINE) to SELL after the partnership today announced an informal Securities and Exchange Commission probe of its accounting. The probe endangers Linn’s pending acquisition of Berry Petroleum (NYSE: BRY), the linchpin of its growth strategy.

Factoring today’s drop, LINE units have provided total returns of 73.6%, 113.4% and 102.1%, respectively in the Personal Finance, MLP Profits and The Energy Strategist portfolios. But now that the SEC has, at least for the time being, legitimized recent complaints about Linn’s financials, cashing out is the most prudent course of action. Sell Linn Energy.

Stock Talk

Hank Haeseker

Hank Haeseker

About two weeks ago you said in an Alert, “Line is an excellent short-term Buy for the risk-tolerant speculator. For a risk-averse income investor, it’s more of a hold at the moment, the double-digit dividend yield offset by the recent volatility of the unit price and the potential for further controversy.”

Today we have further controversy. And you now recommend SELL. At the drastically reduced price, Is this now a buy for the “risk-tolerant speculator?”

It would have been good to hear your Alert first thing today.

Hank

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

The risk is obviously much higher than two weeks ago as a result of the SEC probe and possibility that the Berry merger will be derailed.The price is a little lower but, no, the risk/reward isn’t as appealing. We acted as soon as we could based on the new information. Not all investments work out, but this was an extremely profitable holding for the portfolio and for many readers for many years.

James Martino

James Martino

It is not surprising that the SEC is initiating an informal review of Linn’s accounting, given Barron’s and Seeking Alpha recent articles, and others who have been shorting the stock.

TT

TT

Good point, Hank!! I can REACT to news on my own but I expect the research from Wealth Society to be ahead of the curve not behind. It is disappointing and costly to those of us following your advice to change direction within 2 weeks after glowing reports on why we should continue to own/buy Linn. The real question now: is this the bottom or another Enron?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’m sorry for your loss and I’ll only note that the recent reports on Linn were far from glowing, even as we stuck with it. We’re not clairvoyant about the SEC’s intentions any more than Leon Cooperman, but Linn is unlikely to go the way of Enron any time soon. Still, the probe materially raises the risk profile.

James Martino

James Martino

Very good points. As I read the advice from MLP Profits just two weeks ago, they had concluded that Linn’s handling of the put options was appropriate, why now such a quick about face because of an informal SEC probe????? Looks like it is exclusively based on investor sentiment.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

It’s based on the SEC probe and materially higher risk that the Berry merger won’t go forward. That’s what’s changed.

Jonathan P Nelson

Jonathan P Nelson

well with the advice to sell Line, did any analyst think about the recommendation they had to buy the Linn note???
and what is this service’s advice regarding that???? I am very concerned about your quick turnaround. Frankly LINE probably should have been sold months ago…. Good call guys!!!! and what about the note??????

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Jonathan,
You can find updated advice about the Linn note here:
http://www.investingdaily.com/utility-forecaster/alerts/17769/7213-the-line-on-linn-gets-skewed/

Russell Hirsch

Russell Hirsch

I’m a new subscriber, less than a year. But I am very disappointed with the Linn advice. Since May, I have been researching and reading on the problem. But I put faith in MLP Profits recommendation. Even being a novice, I was suspicious of the problems with Linn, but I felt that this site knew better than I. Boy, was I wrong. I sold my 3009 shares of Linn this afternoon. Took a 38,000 dollar loss. So much for yesterdays advice, buy at 40. Whomever is following the stocks was obviously on vacation.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Russell,
I’m sincerely sorry for your loss. Linn Energy was a portfolio fixture here long before I came along, but yes, I did recommend it even while acknowledging some of the potential pitfalls. Too often in investing, for anyone, things don’t go as expected. The thing to do in those instances is to make the best decision you can on the new information, without undue bias based on what went on before. If you don’t like the advice you acted on in this instance, that’s certainly understandable. But good investors master their emotions, take responsibility for their decisions and learn from them.

TC Investments

Andrew Trautmann

I would have more faith in the MLP Profits $180 fee if they advised to average down after the smoke clears . There is a reliable source in the FT which suggests LINN in fact wants the SEC to evaluate their business model and it’s use of PUT hedging for its NGL in particular. Going forward an MLP acquiring a C Corp MLP presents an enormous opportunity . I took the burn sold half my position but turned right around and purchased BERRY with the proceeds. Now I am going to wait and see what the market says . Remember HERBALIFE, or GREEN MOUNTAIN or NETFLIX all taken to the “wood shed” by short sellers . Had you bought at the bottom you would have picked up a quick 300 %

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Sorry, advising readers to gamble on securities under the cloud of an SEC probe is nor how we earn the fee. We earn it by providing useful information and investment advice that’s been quite valuable in the aggregate over time, But if you disagree, you certainly have other options.

Doubting Thomas

Thomas Clark

Setting the SEC Probe aside, could the rapid drop be some who are not reading the dividend announcement and think it was cut by paying $0.2416 and failed to notice that the interval changed from quarterly to monthly? Whether $0.2416 per month or $0.0.7250 per quarter the annual dividend is the same $2.90.

Perhaps I missed it, but I’ve seen no mention of the apparent shift from quarterly to monthly.

Tom

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

No, it was all about the SEC.

Ralph Bowlin

Ralph Bowlin

I have to agree very little analysis here. Just omg the SEC is going to look at the books-sell, sell, sell. And I agree with Igor’s prior comment, we do have other options.

It would have been helpful to receive a little analysis of the issues. these issues have been around for several months. Is the Wealth Society position that an SEC investigation is a guilty verdict.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I have to respectfully disagree; we’ve provided lots of coverage of Linn and its issues in recent months. And the point isn’t that the company is guilty; it’s that we would rather not own it.

Robert Kalish

Robert Kalish

I’m confused as to your thoughts about NRGM, NRGY, and CMLP in view of the approved, complicated
merger. You seem to have NRGM as a hold, NRGY as a buy, and CMLP as a hold – but, you often don’t update the HOW THEY RATE tables to reflect current advice. NRGY is rapidly dropping (a universal sell on the street) while NRGM is holding up. What are current thought/reasoning on all three?Thanks.
Robert Kalish
RIK1944@aol.com

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Robert,
My first priority has been to get up to speed on the portfolio recommendations. NRGM had been the only one we recommended, hence the change in its rating to a Hold in the wake of the merger. I’m neutral on the other two partnerships. How They Rate will be updated this month.

John Roediger

John Roediger

I kick myself for not having gotten out at the first talk of the SEC. I cannot recall where I encountered the advice, but at the first sign of malfeasance at a company, dump the stock. In this case for me, the loss would have been substantially less.
The dividend is great; when cleared, hopefully within the next 3-4 months, I’m prepared to buy again?
John

Hank Haeseker

Hank Haeseker

Please change the Growth Portfolio recommendation from “buy under 40” to your new “Sell” recommendation, so as not to lead a new subscriber wrongly. For some reason, this coordination seems to take too long and should be addressed.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hank

It has now been removed from the Wealth Society, Energy Strategist, and MLP Profits portfolios. Thank you.

Jim

Slyfox

Robert Riddle

I sold SXL last year as a result of your advice and incurred a tax return nightmare. Sunoco was a good MLP that I wish I had kept regardless of its runup. This time I ignored your advice and (so far) have resisted the urge to sell LINN. At least, Igor, could you please inform us subscribers what if any inside trading is going on and the chances of the dividend being cut even though it is supposed to be fully hedged for a few years? I own my MLPs for reliable income and not capital gains. I intend to leave all of them to my son to avoid taxes and don’t care about the unit price…only the dividends. Is my plan unreasonable? Could LINN be a takeover target should it not recover?

Rick Moore

Rick Moore

Hank you are right on with Linn
Is it time to buy?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Possibly, for aggressive speculators. The action this week is certainly suggestive of a capitulation and I wouldn’t be surprised by a bounce next week and meaningfully higher prices over the medium-term if the SEC probe turns up little new. We just don’t hold the kind of security Linn has become in our portfolios, and I’m glad we helped some subscribers avoid Wednesday’s losses.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Robert,
Your plan is perfectly reasonable and I don’t see much of a chance of a distribution cut. It’s not as if Linn is a complete fraud; it’s an aggressively leveraged partnership that’s not delivering the hoped-for results from prior acquisitions, but Wednesday’s closing price is probably an overshoot to the downside..

David O'brien

David O'brien

Why does your safety rating still show a 3 for LINN?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Because the rating system doesn’t know about the SEC.

Doubting Thomas

Thomas Clark

A little late to notice, I got this note from E*Trade on 06/18/2013 and using my 20-20 hindsight it makes sense:

“The margin maintenance requirement for your holding shown below has been increased. This may have the effect of decreasing the purchasing power you have available for trading. It may also put your account at risk of a house call if your equity falls below the minimum requirement.

Account ending in: XXXX-XXXX
Holding: LINE (LINN ENERGY LLC UNIT LTD LIAB)
New Requirement: 40%
Old Requirement: 25%

Please note that if you have uncovered options on this security, your requirements for those may also be affected. . . . ”

So I guessing it was likely that the shot callers were anticipating the down draft – I wonder what they knew then that prompted this..

Talcott James

Talcott James

Down 50% from the highs earlier this year, how much more downside can their be? Reduce dividend by what, final stock price, and merger not go through? I still don’t see them shutting the doors but what is the outlook for those of us that missed the alerts but had followed the original advice? Are we on the Titanic? Jim T.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I wrote this yesterday morning elsewhere in the thread, Jim:
“The action this week is certainly suggestive of a capitulation and I wouldn’t be surprised by a bounce next week and meaningfully higher prices over the medium-term if the SEC probe turns up little new.”

ROHRSHACK

ROHRSHACK

I for one am not much of a risk taker and own MLPs for the ditributions and consider the cpaital gains as the icing on the cake. LINE was spotlighted as a buy by several services that I follow before this fiasco started. I would like to know exactly what an SEC review really means. What percent of their reviews end up finding the company at fault? I have seen these last few days as an opportunity to leverage my original holdings and have purchased more units. Like Jonn Rogers used to say on Wall Street Week we should buy when there is blood in the streets. And what gives with Andrew Trautmann’s Reply July 2, 2013 at 9:18 PM EDT
“I would have more faith in the MLP Profits $180 fee if they advised to average down after the smoke clears.” Why am I paying more than double for my UF subscription?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

With respect to what an SEC review really means, I refer you to an explanation provided by David Dittman, lead analyst for Utility Forecaster (which also owned LINE in one of its portfolios) and a lawyer by training: http://www.investingdaily.com/utility-forecaster/alerts/17769/7213-the-line-on-linn-gets-skewed/.
As for the $180 fee referred to in another comment, I have no idea what that refers to as the lowest price we offer MLP is $497 for an annual subscription (single payment, not installments). Thank you.

Ralph Carey

Ralph Carey

Igor,
Does it make sense to sell ANY MLP one has held for many years?
Aren’t the tax consequences prohibitive?
I guess it is not clear to me abt taxes.
I am under the impression that all previous distributions received are taxed as
ordinary income, when an MLP is sold. Is this incorrect?
TY,
Ralph

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