MLP Results: The Good, the Meh and the Ugly (EPD, ETE, PAA)

By now midstream investors know the drill. With energy prices low, the bright future remains off in the distance, and the road there is neither smooth nor cheap. In fact, it’s going to cost a lot of cash to cope with the coming growth in oil and gas production. And in the meantime low prices continue to weigh on margins, often forcing tough trade-offs between debt and distributions.

The good news is that the sector is on much firmer footing than a year ago. The growth opportunities are much more plentiful and tangible as shale drilling ramps up once again. Credit is widely available and highly affordable, while midstream equity is no longer marked down for a liquidation sale.

The bad news is that investors have wearied of the ride and grown wary of the broader energy losses. Thursday’s wipeout in response to plunging crude prices was the sort often associated with a change in the trend and was in fact followed by a strong rebound on Friday. But the energy sector remains the clear laggard amid this bull market and is likely to remain one until the price of oil (and/or gas) moves significantly higher.

Against this backdrop, only the truly exceptional quarterly report is likely to impress, and that’s just what #9 Best Buy Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) delivered last week.

Gross operating margin rose 11% year-over-year, and distributable cash flow was up 7%. Crude and NGL pipelines along with LPG exports that are booming once more did most of the heavy lifting.

EPD reported 1.3x coverage on a payout that yields 6.2% and continues to grow 5% annually. These aren’t the flashiest metrics, but the latest results demonstrated the strength of the underlying business.

With its concentration in Texas, where the bulk of new drilling activity is taking place, Enterprise is poised to benefit disproportionately. The chemical plants it’s building to take advantage of the cheapest gas feedstock in the world should prove lucrative as well under contracted fixed-fee arrangements. The one making propylene, known as a PDH cracker, is due to come online in the third quarter of the year. The butylene plant will follow in 2019. Buy EPD below $33.

Top Best Buy Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) didn’t have as much to crow about, its latest subsidy to operating affiliate Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) temporarily pushing ETE’s distribution coverage below 1x.

But this is a transition year for the complex with the two main operating MLPs now merged, the Dakota Access crude pipeline set to go into operation next month, new gas pipelines to Mexico just brought online and a new gas pipeline from the Marcellus into the Midwest set to ramp up flows in the second half of the year. Energy Transfer also seems to be close to revamping plans for liquid natural gas exports from Louisiana into an LPG export venture even as it continues last-ditch talks with LNG partner Shell.

ETP, recently merged with SXL, had pro-forma distribution coverage of 1.13x, and closer to 1.2x excluding an inventory adjustment. As cash flow from new pipelines arrives its payments to general partner ETE will increase. And that, in turn, should allow ETE to start hiking its own payout again. At a current annualized yield of 6.2% ETE remains a must-own given its leverage to growth at ETP.  Buy ETE below 22.

At a current annualized yield of 9.3% and with a payout set to grow some 10% annually, the enlarged ETP is a buy as well. It inherits the $28 buy limit from Sunoco Logistics.

Last and least, Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) missed its earnings mark yesterday, sparking another bout of MLP weakness. Plains was undone by its supply and logistics segment, which took a big hit from shrunken NGL margins blamed on warm weather among other factors. The annual EBITDA guidance came down by $100 million, or about 4%. “Although our cautious outlook for the near term is proving accurate, we definitely like the way the industry is shaping up for the latter part of 2017 and beyond,” the press release noted, while neglecting to mention that the annual profit forecast has been cut.

I have been looking for an excuse to further trim the portfolio. PAA and its corporate proxy Plains GP Holdings LP (NYSE: PAGP) have given me a reason by lowering guidance. Both are downgraded to a Sell. They certainly aren’t a bad hold, but I no longer believe they are among the top MLPs in the portfolio. Sell PAA and PAGP.

 

Stock Talk

Michael Dunn

Michael Dunn

Any new thought on ETP since the courts have gotten involved again and the div. has come down?
Any idea where the Wealth conference will be next year?
Mike

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

Hi Mike,

I don’t think this new court ruling will have much impact. Still bullish on ETP, but we have to get past the negative overall sentiment of the sector before it can get any footing.

I just asked, and was told the location for the next Wealth Summit will be announced in Q3. I have cast my vote for Havana two years in a row. 🙂

Michael Dunn

Michael Dunn

Havana would be interesting!
My vote would be for Puerto Vallarta. Would settle for Austin or Ft. Worth, TX

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

We dumped PAA in May based on a deteriorating outlook. Today, they lowered guidance again, and units are getting slammed in after hours trading. Down 1.6% during regular trading hours, and then another 13% after hours.

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