Numbers for all three companies more than supported growth plans, strong balance sheets and current dividend rates. And they remain buys up to USD13, USD6 and USD7, respectively.

Acadian Timber’s fourth-quarter results were massively improved from year-earlier levels. Sales volumes increased by 22 percent, as the company benefitted from strong demand for hardwood pulpwood. Cash flow adjusted for items rose 34.2 percent, as cash flow margins rose from 25 percent to 28 percent of revenue thanks to better pricing of hardwood pulpwood and efficiency measures at operations.

The results were a near doubling of free cash flow and solid dividend coverage of 1.24-to-1. That pushed Acadian’s full-year coverage ratio to 1.01-to-1. Free cash flow is the account from which dividends are paid and reflects what’s left over after all capital and operating expenses.

Acadian also benefitted from more favorable weather conditions, which helped higher-margin Maine operations contribute more to the bottom line. That helped to overcome price weakness in some areas, which resulted in a 3 percent decrease in the company’s average selling price for logs.

Management offered some encouraging news on reviving demand for logs used in homebuilding. That’s been a major headwind to the company’s growth in recent years. A new pricing mechanism under its fiber supply agreement is another positive.

The company also noted price increases for pulp, though it maintained a cautious view on their sustainability given “ample global capacity.”

Looking ahead, management’s conservative view makes a dividend increase less likely in 2013. There are other potential catalysts for a higher stock price. For example, parent Brookfield Asset Management Inc (TSX: BAM/A, NYSE: BAM) has made several major moves to boost the fortunes of other affiliates such as Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF).

But for now I’m keeping Acadian Timber’s buy-under target at USD13.

I added Noranda Income Fund to the Aggressive Holdings in December 2011, primarily as a bet that dissident shareholders would succeed in wrangling a higher dividend from management.

This issue is as yet undecided and may not be until Noranda’s parent Xstrata Plc (London: XTA, OTC: XSRAF, ADR: XSRAY) completes a planned merger with Glencore International Plc (London: GLEN, OTC: GLCNF, ADR: GLNCY).

There are indications that the independent committee formed to settle these issues may be moving toward that eventually. Noranda’s board, for example, has now done away with the “in kind” portion of the dividend, which created tax headaches for many investors without any reward.

The committee has also retained the services of an industry consultant to “identify possible alternative sources of zinc concentrate” after the Supply and Processing Agreement with parent Xstrata expires in 2017.

Management has previously cited the expiration as the reason Noranda’s first priority must be debt reduction as well as the establishment of a cash reserve that would be used to shut down and dismantle the facility.

This decision doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s now far more likely the facility will stay open into the next decade. And once debt is reduced sufficiently, the company will indeed have ample room to raise the dividend.

Strong fourth-quarter operating numbers are certainly an incentive for the owners to keep the processors running. Earnings before finance costs and income taxes surged to CAD24.3 million, up tenfold from year-earlier tallies.

Zinc metal production set a new quarterly record of 74,748 tons, up 10.7 percent from 2011. That bested the previous high-water mark of 70,358 tons, set all the way back in the third quarter of 2002. Zinc metal sales were up 6.1 percent, and “premium” per pound rose 29.3 percent. Byproduct revenue from sulfuric acid, copper-in-cake production and copper-in-cake sales were up a collective 8.9 percent.

Looking ahead to the rest of the year, Noranda has ramped up capital expenditures by CAD20 million in order to accommodate new sources of zinc concentrate supply. That too is a pretty good sign management won’t close the facility in 2017.

Meanwhile, fourth-quarter cash flow from operations less capital spending covered the dividend by a 2.9-to-1 margin. That’s a pretty good sign the company will able to preserve the current dividend stream in 2013 after the stepped-up spending.

Like any commodity-focused business, Noranda’s profits ultimately depend on global manufacturing, where zinc products are used. And the current picture is strength in Asia, weakness in Europe and uncertainty in North America. Indications are for modest overall improvement in 2013.

But business volatility and the unsettled dividend add up to uncertainty. And that makes Noranda Income Fund suitable for aggressive investors only at a price of USD6 or lower.

Student Transportation had perhaps the best report of the trio. Revenue in the bus company’s fiscal 2013 second quarter rose 18 percent, while cash flow ex-items surged 20 percent. That was despite recording CAD2 million of “deferred” revenue, the result of missed school days in New Jersey due to Superstorm Sandy.

The results were in line with management’s forecast of a 15 percent boost in fiscal 2013 revenue, reflecting already closed contracts and the determination to focus on improving efficiencies this year rather than pursue fresh acquisitions. The company has, however, won the largest contract in its history, which will go into effect with Omaha Public Schools for the fiscal 2014 year on July 1, 2013.

The Omaha contract includes 400 new alternative-fuel vehicles plus an additional 100 designed for longer trips. The buses will run on liquid petroleum gas (LPG), a fuel that’s both cleaner-burning and half the price of diesel.

That’s another step in Student Transportation’s ongoing effort to reduce the impact of fuel cost volatility on earnings. Some 63 percent of current contracts are protected already, and that share continues to rise rapidly.

Student Transportation also reported progress slashing into its debt burden, which has grown in recent years due to the pace of acquisitions. Interest costs were shaved 14 percent during the quarter from year-earlier levels.

The company also reported solid progress cutting into insurance costs, the result of improved safety that flows from its focus on its drivers. Savings of CAD400,000 from insurance more than offset the CAD300,000 in additional salaries and arguably helped keep contract renewal rates high (95 percent in the fourth quarter) with improved driver loyalty.

At the start of this fiscal year Student Transportation came under fire from some observers for its acquisitions, which by some measures were making the company larger but less profitable and more indebted.

The company is still adding business in such a way that pushes expenditures up for the promise of future revenue and higher cash flow once they’re made. But these results indicate the company is making progress delivering on its promise of boosting margins and therefore dividend sustainability.

The pace of adding new business going forward depends on market conditions, and there is competition for school districts seeking to privatize.

For the first six months of this fiscal year at least, management has kept to its pledge not to sacrifice margins. And the company is becoming more profitable than ever as a result.

I’m not expecting a dividend increase at this company this year. But adjusted cash flow of CAD0.035 per share in the quarter did cover the payout by a 2.5-to-1 margin, which is a nice cushion for the current level.

Student Transportation remains a buy up to USD7 for those who don’t already own it.

I have one final note concerning Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT), which I didn’t cover in detail in the February Canadian Edge.

The company announced the sale of the three Florida power plants as management had indicated it would. What’s unknown is whether the price was in line with management’s guidance, which in turn is underpinning the current dividend rate.

I’ve pointed out some positives about Atlantic Power, such the unexpected renewal of the wind-power tax credit in the US just days after the company closed an asset purchase from Veolia Environnement SA (France: VIE, NYSE: VE). And to date there’s no indication from management that this sale wasn’t right in line with what it expected to get, nor has there been any change in guidance.

My feeling is we’re going to get a lot more detail here on Feb. 28 and March 1, when the company will release earnings and guidance, respectively.

Until then my advice is for those who have positions in Atlantic Power to hold what they have. The stock’s still a buy up to USD14 for those who don’t own it.

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–March 8 (estimate)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–March 7 (estimate)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–March 12 (estimate)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–February Portfolio Update
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR, OTC: CDPYF)–Feb. 26 (confirmed)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–February Portfolio Update
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Feb. 26 (confirmed)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–Feb. 20 (confirmed)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Feb. 22 (estimate)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–March 14 (confirmed)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Feb. 14 (confirmed)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR, OTC: NPRUF)–March 13 (confirmed)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–Feb. 15 (estimate)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI, OTC: RIOCF)–Feb. 14 (confirmed)
• Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/A. NYSE: SJR)–February Portfolio Update
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–Feb. 13 Flash Alert
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–March 1 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF)–Feb. 13 Flash Alert
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–March 14 (estimate)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–February In Focus
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Feb. 21 (confirmed)
• Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–March 22 (estimate)
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–March 15 (estimate)
• Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–Feb. 27 (confirmed)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–March 26 (estimate)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–February Best Buy
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Feb. 13 (confirmed)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Feb. 13 Flash Alert
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–March 7 (estimate)
• PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–March 7 (estimate)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–March 7 (estimate)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–March 4 (confirmed)
• Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–March 6 (estimate)