Safe Ports in Stormy Seas
With the stock market struggling to shake off nagging doubts that the best days are behind it so far this year, the attractions of a patient investor base and a decent yield have only increased.
This week we are adding to the portfolios to master limited partnerships that fit the bill, including one that offers a big growth kicker.
Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) is one of the largest MLPs in the land, and effectively controls three large affiliated partnership that will be sharing with it a growing proportion of their income. It’s also developing a liquefied natural gas export project on the Louisiana coast under terms that will give lucrative and guaranteed returns decades into the future.
After growing the affiliated Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) into the premier natural gas shipper, billionaire co-founder and CEO Kelcy Warren went on an acquisition binge just as rise of new shale production began to sap ETP’s growth a few years ago.
Source: partnership presentation
Buying Sunoco — including the assets now held by ETE affiliate Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL) — was one such smart move, diversifying Energy Transfer into crude at a price that looks dirt cheap less than two years later.
But, perhaps even more shrewdly, Warren also bought the Southern Union Company in 2011 for $4.2 billion in stock at a modest premium, and with it the Trunkline liquefied natural gas terminal in Lake Charles, Louisiana.
That site has now been approved for a major LNG export project, with Energy Transfer’s partner, BG Group (NYSE: BG), assuming nearly all the risks and Energy Transfer locking in an attractive guaranteed rate of return for 30 years, while also ginning up lots of additional fees carrying the needed gas to the site.
By the time exports ramp up to full capacity in 2021, ETE and ETP should see nearly $1.2 billion in annual cash flow from the project directly, with ETE’s lion share equaling all of last year’s distributable cash flow. ETE’s valuation is up 28 percent since those figures were released not quite four months ago, which hardly accounts for all of the upside.
Jana Partners is a well-regarded value-oriented hedge fund that has invested in ETE and become a big booster, expects distribution growth to compound at an annual rate of 15 percent over the next five years, a view shared by several Wall Street analysts. The current yield is a modest 3 percent.
Upcoming catalysts include the likely fall initial public offering of a new subordinate LNG MLP that would actually own the Lake Charles assets, as well as continued acquisitions by ETE affiliates ETP, SXL and Regency Energy Partners (NYSE: RGP), which will serve to increase ETE’s lucrative incentive distribution rights.
Meanwhile, ETE is spending $1 billion to buy back its own units under a recent authorization. Warren owns a 17 percent stake in ETE, accounting for the bulk of his wealth, and he’s a proven rainmaker. We’re adding Energy Transfer Equity to our Growth Portfolio. Buy ETE below $52.
AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) can’t aspire to similarly strong growth, but does offer a much more generous 8 percent yield that looks very secure.
The leading domestic propane distributor recently took over one of its largest competitors in an industry where the economies of scale are as significant as the barriers to entry. And many of its customers have few alternatives to propane as their fuel.
As a result, AmeriGas has steadily increased its unit margins through a variety of pricing environments for wholesale propane. These now top $1 per gallon, supporting a nifty yield growing at 5 percent annually.
The partnership has recently added to its roster of national accounts while promoting a successful summertime grilling cylinder exchange program at participating retailers.
AmeriGas reported strong quarterly results on Feb. 4, with adjusted earnings before items up 19 percent from a year ago and margins up slightly from the same period in 2013 despite a 35 percent rise in wholesale propane prices.
Management stuck to prior guidance of growing adjusted earnings 7 percent for the year, a goal that now looks very conservative.
A director spent more than $100,000 to purchase units on Feb. 6, followed by the CEO and the CFO with purchases of nearly $500,000 and $127,000, respectively, on Feb. 12. We share their optimism, and are adding AmeriGas to the Conservative portfolio. Buy APU below $51
Stock Talk
David Miller
That site has now been approved for a major LNG export project, with Energy Transfer’s partner, BG Group (NYSE: BG … incorrect symbol?
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