More evidence that Canada’s economy is gaining traction came from the country’s latest wholesale trade data. According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), June wholesale trade climbed 0.6 percent month over month, to CAD53.0 billion, beating the consensus forecast among economists by a significant two-tenths of a percentage point.

Wholesale trade is considered an economic bellwether, so it’s an area that we’ve been monitoring closely for clues about the trend of the overall economy. June was the third consecutive month in which wholesale trade increased, which augurs well for second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

StatCan observes that five of the seven subsectors it tracks posted gains in June. That was enough to offset the performance of the motor vehicle and parts space, which declined 2.4 percent month over month, though sales were still up 9.8 percent from a year ago.

In May, wholesale trade in the automotive space surged 9.8 percent, so it was due for a retrenchment in June. When excluding this subsector, which still accounted for about 17.1 percent of June’s tally, wholesale sales rose 1.2 percent.

Among the numerous individual industries that are categorized into the seven subsectors, the single biggest contributor to the rise in wholesale trade by dollar amount was agricultural supplies. Wholesale trade in this industry jumped by CAD95 million, or 4.9 percent, to CAD2.04 billion. On a year-over-year basis, growth in wholesale sales of agricultural supplies is slightly more moderate, at 4.1 percent.

Given the strong real estate market in Canada and the resurgent housing market in the US, the building material and supply subsector also enjoyed strong sales in June, up 2.2 percent, to CAD7.6 billion. StatCan notes that this was the sixth consecutive gain for this subsector and the highest level on record.

In particular, the lumber industry rose 3.7 percent, to CAD3.6 billion. On a year-over-year basis, sales in this industry have risen by 14.6 percent, ranking it fourth for growth in wholesale sales among Canada’s industries during this period.

In addition to overall wholesale trade, we’re also monitoring sales of machinery and equipment to gauge the extent to which Canada’s businesses are investing for future growth.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is keen for the country’s economy to transition from its dependence on debt-burdened consumers to being driven by rising export activity, particularly among manufacturers. The central bank chief believes higher exports will spur business investment, thus begetting a virtuous economic cycle of greater hiring, spending and subsequent production.

In the wholesale arena, spending on machinery and equipment is encouraging. Sales of machinery and equipment rose 0.4 percent, to CAD11.03 billion, which was also 6.5 percent higher than a year ago. The subsector’s single strongest industry supplies equipment to the construction, forestry, mining, and industrial industries, with wholesale sales up 9.8 percent year over year, to CAD3.84 billion.

Wholesale trade in this area hit an all-time high of CAD11.13 billion last November, but June’s sales were the second-highest on record. In fact, sales in this area have risen now for three consecutive months following their first-quarter swoon.

Economists project that Canada’s economy expanded by 2.6 percent during the second quarter. For full-year 2014, GDP is forecast to grow by 2.2 percent, outpacing the US economy by two-tenths of a percentage point.

Although Canada’s economy is not yet operating at full capacity, that hasn’t stopped the country’s stock market from outperforming its developed-world peers so far this year. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is up nearly 14 percent year to date in local currency terms, almost double the gain of the S&P 500.

Portfolio Update

For the past year, Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) has been what we’d describe as a “reversion to the mean” story. 

The company’s performance suffered in the wake of the 2012 historic drought, and the stock was punished accordingly, falling all the way to CAD27.84 in late 2012, down 49 percent from its all-time high of CAD54.71, set just a year and a half earlier.

But with record planting seasons for various key crops in the two years since then, Ag Growth’s shares have recovered most of that decline and now trade near CAD46.95, up 68.6 percent from the aforementioned low.

The grain-handling and equipment manufacturer’s second-quarter trade sales rose 19.7 percent to a record high of CAD112.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization) jumped 38.9 percent, to CAD23.2 million.

Management attributes this performance to inventory restocking after last year’s record crop production, with expectations for another excellent harvest further stoking demand. 

The US Department of Agriculture projects that this year’s corn harvest will slightly exceed last year’s record production of 13.9 billion bushels.

Ag Growth’s second-quarter performance beat analyst estimates by 8.3 percent for earnings per share, but missed on sales by 2.1 percent. That was the second consecutive earnings beat and the first disappointment on sales in four quarters.

For full-year 2014, analysts forecast sales to rise 17 percent year over year, to CAD418.3 million, while adjusted earnings per share are expected to jump 65 percent, to CAD2.89.

Analyst sentiment remains largely bullish with a somewhat neutral tilt, at seven “buys” and four “holds.” The consensus 12-month target price is CAD52.86, which suggests potential appreciation of 12.8 percent above the current share price.

The company pays a monthly dividend of CAD0.20, or CAD2.40 annualized, for a current yield of 5.1 percent. Ag Growth is a buy below USD40 in the Aggressive Portfolio.