Playing China’s New Game

China’s been up to a lot lately, and it may pay dividends for investors who play it right. The country’s move to lower interest rates to 5.6%, the signing of a climate pact with the U.S. and plans to stimulate its economy are actually just more tactical steps in a long-range plan to boost sagging growth as the country makes the transition to a consumer society.

Challenges abound, and China will be highly volatile in the short term. It has to address slow factory growth, a stalled property market, and a banking sector that’s increasingly burdened by bad loans.

We think this environment favors multinationals in the short-term over private Chinese businesses and state-owned enterprises. Given the current shakeout that’s happening by under performing private and state-owned businesses, it’s too soon to pick winners in those two categories.

In the long-term, all three business sectors—private, state-run and multinational—will benefit from the China-U.S. climate pact that will mean increases in energy investment. Clean tech infrastructure players such as General Electric (NYSE: GE) and home-grown Chinese renewable energy developers will get more business. China has pledged to build a national carbon market in 2016, which would put a price on carbon and motivate businesses to reduce their emissions.

Of course, some critics think the terms of the pact are so vague China will emit as much as it wants to. And given early Republican criticism over the climate deal, we’ll be watching closely to see whether the U.S.-China pact is blocked next year by the incoming Republican-controlled Congress.

China on the Upswing?

china market

Source: Y Charts

The Big Picture

China’s recent moves are just the latest changes in a much bigger strategy, known as the Third Plenum. This is designed to open the country’s banking, energy and other key sectors to foreign investment, which represent the biggest expansion of China’s markets since liberalization began decades ago.

Will the Third Plenum pay off? Many investors are understandably hesitant to pile back into countries such as China, after emerging markets’ stomach churning, wild ride over the last two years. This was driven largely by the Chinese economy’s slowdown and fears that the nation was headed for a hard landing.

So investors in China need to stay in for the long haul and understand that the market will continue to develop, albeit in fits and starts. Patience is the key.

To capitalize on China’s new reforms, we advise investors to first look at Western multinationals with China operations because they are already doing business there and their stocks are fairly-priced and easy to trade.

Subscribers to Global Income Edge receive the full update, which lists multinationals on our portfolio that are best positioned to take advantage of China’s reforms.

Portfolio Update

We believe Global Income Edge Aggressive Portfolio holdings HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HSBC) and global shipper Seaspan (NYSE: SSW) are best positioned to benefit from China’s recent moves to stimulate its economy as those moves will generate more banking business by Chinese domestic companies, and will boost exports, which means more shipping.

We added HSBC Holdings to our portfolio last week. HSBC pays a 4.8% yield and is a quintessential Global Income Edge stock. It is firmly rooted in developed markets but has important operations in developing markets, and it’s a cash-generating machine that allows it topay a healthy, sustainable dividend. In the third quarter, it reported that underlying revenue, excluding one item costs, rose 5% to $15.8 billion. Revenues from commercial banking continue to grow, especially in Hong Kong.

HSBC is a Buy up to $55.

Hong Kong-based Seaspan has been increasing its exposure to China as in the last few years by buying a significant number of new building containerships constructed by Chinese shipyards. In mid-September the company was considering acquiring Greater China Intermodal Investments (GCI), its boxship investment partnership with private equity giant The Carlyle Group. Seaspan currently manages GCI’s operating vessels and provides pre-delivery services for GCI’s newbuilding vessels. We believe Seaspan is a great play on the global recovery, and more specifically, growth in China.

Currently yielding 6.8%, by chartering its ships to major shipping companies over long terms at fixed rates, Seaspan is able to pay an extremely attractive $0.35 quarterly dividend from its predictable cash flows while maintaining a high utilization rate. As of the end of the second quarter of 2014, 99.3% of the company’s fleet was at sea and expected to generate $6.4 billion over the next seven years. As a result of its stable operations and growing fleet, revenue growth over the past 5-years was 24.2%, while earnings per share growth has been 24.1%.

Seaspan is a Buy up to $27.

Stock Talk

Giulio Leone

Giulio Leone

Now what with Seadrill ? Thanks.

Richard Stavros

Richard Stavros

Giulio –
Please find our action to SELL Sea Drill this morning and the reasons why.

Richard

PF and GIE: Sell Seadrill

By RICHARD STAVROS on DECEMBER 1, 2014
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The ink was barely dry on our update on Seadrill in the previous issue of Personal Finance when the company dropped the bombshell that many had feared: It announced on November 26th that it is temporarily suspending its dividend until further notice, something it had also done in late 2008 as “The Great Recession” created a similar squeeze on its operating cash flow.

That time the suspension lasted five quarters, with the company resuming dividend payments in the third quarter of 2009 at an amount 20% below the prior dividend payment made in the second quarter of 2008. So, it’s fair to ask how long might the company hold off on resuming its dividend, and when it does, at what level is it likely to begin paying out? More importantly, how will the price of its stock perform until that happens?

The answer to all of those questions is dependent on a variety of factors, including how soon the price of oil gets back closer to $90/barrel where companies like Seadrill can turn a profit; whether or not Seadrill elects to exercise its contractual right to bail out of the Rosneft deal with Russia by this coming May; and to what extent Seadrill can offload some of its debt onto its related entities, and/or walk away from that part of it contingent on consummation of the Rosneft deal.

For what it’s worth, when Seadrill did resume paying its dividend in 2009 the stock price quickly recovered, going from a low of less than $10 to a high of more than $40 in less than six years (see chart below). Of course, in 2008 the entire global stock market was imploding, most likely compounding the level of selling in the stock. Also, aggressive Fed intervention since then has rapidly propelled the stock market higher, most likely exaggerating the level of demand for all stocks, including Seadrill.

That being the case, my best guess is that the stock does not sink as low as is did last time, nor will it recover so quickly. That said, it does make for interesting speculation at current prices, as the energy sector is notoriously cyclical so it’s only a matter of time until oil prices are back on the upswing and the deep sea drillers are competitive again.

However, until then the company won’t be able to pay its dividend so we are removing Seadrill from the Global Income Edge (GIE) Aggressive Portfolio as the stock will no longer deliver income. It is also being cut from the Personal Finance Maximum Income for Retirees portfolio.

On October 30, GIE moved to put Seadrill on Hold as a result of a glut in the oil market due to slower global growth. The publication at the time warned investors that short-term earnings pressures could impact the dividend given their high debt levels, and headwinds from projects in Russia due to geopolitical tensions could hamper earnings, which regrettably turned out to be true.

While PF and GIE will no longer cover Sea Drill, our other publication, The Energy Strategist does hold out hope of a recovery for those that lost principal. The publication believes “there’s significantly more value here than today’s share price would indicate, but don’t expect that to be realized next year. Profiting from SeaDrill’s rebound will require the patience of a true bottom-dweller. If that sounds like you, they say, continue to hold Seadrill.

But from the perspective of PF and Global Income Edge – when a company suspends its dividend – it’s the worst possible outcome of any income investment.

SRDL is a SELL.

– Richard Stavros and Jim Pearce

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