HiMax’s Big Potential Comes Into Focus
HiMax Technologies (NSDQ: HIMX) is a leading provider of video components for everything from smartphones to automobiles to virtual reality systems. What makes the company’s stock a great buy now are three things:
The company’s fortunes have ebbed and flowed over the past few years beating down its stock price.
As more big electronics companies pile into virtual reality systems it’s become a potential takeover target.
It’s turning a corner on revenue and earnings.
You’ve heard of virtual reality (VR) but you probably haven’t donned a VR helmet yet that seems to transport you to a new reality, or even used a VR app on your smartphone. Industry analysts predict that will change within a decade, as VR is expected to become the fastest-growing technology niche, with annual revenue exploding from $5 billion this year to more than $162 billion in 2020.
More than half of that revenue will come from hardware sales as users migrate from their phones to headsets and standalone systems. While the blazingly fast processors that have become available over the past few years are the brains of the systems, the display circuits that HiMax Technologies makes are their eyes. HiMax’s chips for liquid crystal on silicon (LCOS) displays provide the vision for most major developers of virtual and augmented reality.
The advantage of LCOS displays is that they’re about as thin as a standard pair of glasses, so they provide a more “normal” user experience—HiMax’s are the industry leader. Even though Google Glass was a flop (many users reported that the technology was just too creepy), HiMax’s LCOS provided the display. Those chips are also used by Microsoft’s Hololens and incorporated into products from Oseterhout Design Group, Optinvent, Lumus and Lenovo.
Highest of Hi-Def
HiMax isn’t a one-trick pony, though, as it also makes displays for super-sharp 8K televisions. Most high-definition televisions today have a resolution of two megapixels per frame. Many newer sets are now using 4K, or eight megapixels per frame. If you think the images on these new TVs are sharp, you should see the picture on an 8K set, which has a resolution of 32 megapixels per frame. The 8K image is so sharp that a lot of actors are afraid they won’t be pretty enough for TV anymore.
Those 8K sets are still too big and costly for most consumers, but HiMax reports that its shipments of 8K displays are growing. The company also sells displays and timing controllers for automotive applications, such as heads-up displays and in-vehicle touchscreens, a booming business as cars become more like computers on wheels.
Boom and Bust
HiMax has had its ups and downs. In 2013 HiMax shares shot up after Google bought a 6.3% stake in the company, mainly to make sure it had a steady supply of displays for its Google Glass. As Google Glass flopped, HiMax shares dropped. We saw a similar pattern this year, when the public learned HiMax was supplying displays for Microsoft’s Hololens, driving the shares up, and when Hololens shipments proved disappointing, HiMax dropped.
The company’s revenue dropped precipitously in 2015, falling to $691.79 million from $840.54 million in 2014. That was mostly due to plunging sales of smartphone and tablet displays as consumers put off upgrading devices, either because of costs or underwhelming product features. At the same time HiMax beefed up its staff to meet growing VR demand, a move that proved to be a huge drag on earnings per share, which dropped from 44 cents in 2014 to 18 cents last year.
This year is looking up, mostly because of the growing demand for television and automotive displays. Full-year revenue is expected to climb back to $803.16 million, while EPS is forecast to hit 41 cents.
Next year’s forecast is even better, with revenue expected to hit $844 million and EPS nudging up to 42 cents. According to CEO Jordan Wu, the company has been working with more than 30 customers in the virtual and augmented reality fields for more than 15 years. That work is paying off, so much, in fact, that the company is expanding its production lines for the next generation of LCOS displays.
We’re already seeing solid returns, with third-quarter revenue shooting up 32% year-over-year and net income rising nearly sevenfold to $13.6 million. Amazingly, though, that’s had little impact on the company’s stock price. Currently, it trades at just 21.7 times trailing one-year earnings, down from 41.7 times just a few months ago and well below its five-year average of 27 times.
That makes it a bargain, and considering the growing VR market, a ripe takeover target. With a market cap of just over $1 billion and market-leading technology, big VR players like Alphabet or Facebook could basically buy HiMax with their lunch money.
HiMax holds nearly 3,000 patents in display and timing technologies, intellectual property that is worth the company’s sale price alone. Because HiMax is based in Taiwan, a purchase also would be a good use of cash for a U.S. company that doesn’t want to repatriate that money for tax reasons.
To be clear, we don’t have any inside track on a potential buyout offer, but the reasons for one are too compelling to ignore.
Buy HiMax Technologies up to $15.
Stock Talk
Mr. Carl Hilliker
How certain are you that HiMax is a good buy? I notice that it is not listed in your portfolio.
Carl
Jim Pearce
Himax is listed as a current holding in the Breakthrough Tech portfolio: http://www.investingdaily.com/breakthrough-tech-profits/portfolio/dynamic/breakthrough-tech/
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C. Fisher
HIMX Some analysts are saying VR is due a setback of sorts. Thinking the same thing may happen here as happened with CERS. Guess I am asking do you still think the numbers you mentioned for 2017 will hold with the speculation that VR is due a setback of sorts? kind regards
Jim Pearce
I do not believe that VR/AR is due for a setback since its use is projected to grow by 20x over the next five years. And HIMX is currently priced at only 17x forward earnings, which is relatively low for a small-cap tech stock with a huge I.P. portfolio that may become the subject of a bidding war later this year. But you have to be patient with a stock like HIMX; it may do nothing for several months and then spike suddenly on the whisper of a buyout so you just have to “set it and forget it”.
C. Fisher
Just a note (maybe worth a look/from seeking alpha) and thank you for the reply. The article did mention HIMX has a lot invested in VR so just trying to fill some blanks in. I appreciate the wealth of info I get from investing dally.
Redrut, Contributor
Comments (2090) |+ Follow |Send Message
AR fears of a slowdown are clearly not overblown, the largest customer is ramping down and so I wouldnt expect contributions here until late 2018 unless Magic Leap makes a surprise entrance
If you like automotive touch screens why not buy one of the other 10-12 TDDI suppliers that trade at 30-40% cheaper than Himax?
VR gaming will not be taking off in the near future because you need constant 60FPS which core consoles can’t do properly. Furthermore, no singificant VR game has started the 3 year development cycle
Risk/reward is slightly more balance here but probably dead money for a while
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Jim Pearce
Himax released its quarterly earnings report this morning (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/himax-technologies-inc-reports-fourth-100000185.html). It was a mixed bad of good and bad news, but the stock opened to the upside this morning so it looks like the overall perception is that it is heading in the right direction. Since bottoming out below $5 on February 9, HIMX is now trading above $6.50 and appears to be back on track.
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