Riding the Tech Rocket (GOOG, MSFT, TER, IAC)
Remember this? I’m happy to report investors’ yearlong love affair with tech stocks just won’t quit. As noted last month, it’s a relationship cemented by cold, hard cash flow as much as promises of a happy ever-after.
Case in point, the current earnings season. Last Thursday, Alphabet (GOOG) reported $9.5 billion in quarterly operating cash flow, beating expectations as the surge in online advertising revenue showed no sign of flagging. The stock is up 12% in a little more than two weeks since we recommended it.
The same day, Microsoft (MSFT) reported first-quarter operating cash flow of $10.7 billion, boosted by rapid growth in server software and cloud services for businesses and consumers. Over the past 12 months the company has spent $25 billion on dividends and share repurchases, for an effective cash return yield of 5% based on the current market cap, and nearly 8% of Microsoft’s value a year ago. The stock is up 39% over that span. It’s easy to love Mr. Softee’s generosity and knack for winning.
Also Thursday, Teradyne (TER) reported a 53% year-over-year surge in orders. The chip testing equipment maker is benefitting from Apple’s upcoming mobile upgrade cycle while diversifying into fast-growing industrial applications. Teradyne’s acquisition two years ago of Universal Robots, creators of cheap, programmable “cobots” designed to work alongside humans, is working out great, with sales more than doubling in the last year. Teradyne plans to spend $256 million this year on share repurchases and dividends, for an effective cash return yield of 3.6%. The stock’s gained 23% during its three months in the portfolio, yet still looks cheap at just 8 times next year’s EBITDA, going by one sell-side estimate.
Last but not least I need to mention IAC InterActive (IAC), which is up 27% since we added it to the portfolio five weeks ago. The bulk of that came only this week after IAC struck a deal merging its HomeAdvisor home repairs marketplace with rival Angie’s Place, whose share price soared as a result.
Despite the fancy premium getting ANGI back to where it traded as recently as September, this was a capitulation. Angie’s List will end up with no more than 13% of the merged company’s equity in exchange for giving the much faster growing and better managed HomeAdvisor access to its paying customers, reviews and web traffic. The resulting combination will get a big leg up in its drive to dominate online home repair contracting. It’s aiming to grow revenue 20-25% annually for the next five years.
In the process of delivering all this good news, IAC, TER and GOOG have quickly outrun their buy limits. Which, however pleasant, is still a problem.
The two classes of Alphabet stock along with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook account for 42% of the Nasdaq-100 Index, which is up 30% in the last year, 15% since Jan. 1 and 5% over the last three weeks, so this hasn’t exactly been a stealth rally.
The recent earnings-driven surge has left lots of technical short-term indicators looking overbought, so a pullback wouldn’t come as a surprise. Uptrends can be tougher than bear markets, psychologically. The temptation to cash out and lock in the gains is constant. And it‘s hard to pay up for something priced considerably lower just a short time ago.
But that’s what stocks do: they move, and trends built on stubborn public misconceptions can take a long time to play out. This tech move isn’t done and it’s important not to cut off likely sources of long-term outperformance in the name of dodging some short-term pain.
The massive advantages of scale and network effects in a wired world have funneled massive cash flows to a handful of large-cap techs. Yet the market continues to value a few of these economically dominant powerhouses at lower earnings multiples than soft drinks and toothpaste makers.
So I’m raising buy limits on the stocks worth buying for the longer haul at current prices. But I’d add that today is probably not the best time to increase your overall market exposure, so if you choose to add to these long-term winners consider lightening up elsewhere.
No one can know when the next selloff will hit. But odds are excellent that this isn’t the top of this bull market. If you buy good stocks at a fair price, you’ll do alright. And on that note I’m raising the buy limits to 42 for TER, 110 for IAC and 1050 for GOOG.
Lastly, I have a big favor to ask: if you caught one of these moves or any others among our recent winners, could you share your story by commenting below or by taking this super-quick survey?
Stock Talk
Gompps
I am really excited to report that I bought shares of IAC on 4/5 and today am up over 30%! I’m thinking of adding a 25% trailing stop to those shares to keep me in the black. I also recall reading that we should hang onto these shares until after a stock split. Any other thoughts on how long to keep this one in the portfolio?
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Martin Vetter
Igor, here’s an analysis of GOOG by CB Insights, who track transactions in the VC/PE space.
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/google-strategy-teardown/
And a similar one for Amazon – https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/amazon-strategy-teardown/.
Both are fascinating companies.
Igor Greenwald
Interesting stuff, and there’s certainly a lot of it. I wanted to reserve comment until I had a chance to look at it in depth, but then earnings season won over. Thanks so much for sharing.
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