Portfolio Update: Damn the Torpedoes! These Stocks Are Speeding Ahead
As market tumult this week spooks investors, it’s more important than ever to stay focused on underlying fundamentals. That’s why you should continue to be bullish on the technology sector, which remains high in liquidity, low on debt and long on prospects.
To be sure, tech stocks have taken a beating this week, as “headline risk” makes a comeback. The broader markets have tumbled, with the major indices all down for the week. Many anxieties bedevil investors right now, but two stand out: the Facebook (NSDQ: FB) data theft scandal and the brewing trade war.
Our portfolio picks for the most part have weathered the storm relatively well. That’s because we shun the overvalued darlings that get hyped by the yakkers on financial television. Below, I review the latest and most salient developments among three of our picks. But first, a quick review of the troubling news that’s been weighing on Wall Street.
Personal data theft is casting a pall over the technology sector, amid a growing uproar over Facebook and data mining firm Cambridge Analytica. Lawmakers in the U.S. and U.K. want to know how the London-based Cambridge Analytica hijacked the personal profiles of 50 million Facebook users, for use in disinformation campaigns on behalf of President Trump and other right-wing causes.
Tech stocks have lost momentum and gyrated, as fears arise that Cambridge Analytica’s misuse of Facebook user data could spark greater regulation of Silicon Valley.
Facebook’s shares have plunged in recent days, wiping out more than $50 billion in the company’s market value. Ouch! Facebook’s current woes underscore my wisdom in eschewing trendy social media stocks.
Then there’s the brewing trade war. The main stock indices have fallen in the wake of President Trump’s announcement Thursday of tariffs and penalties of as much as $60 billion on Chinese imports. Previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum are scheduled to go into effect today. The administration said that it would exempt the European Union, South Korea, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico from the tariffs on the two metals.
Trump alleges that Beijing has forced U.S.-based technology firms to transfer their intellectual property to China as a cost of doing business there. The White House is pressing China to reduce its $375 billion trade surplus with the U.S. by $100 billion. China has vowed retaliation. History shows that protectionism hurts everyone.
It’s during fraught times like these, with rising geopolitical tensions, that our stocks prove their mettle.
Over the long haul, the biggest stock market winners are companies like those in the BTP portfolio. That’s because they defy the status-quo and introduce disruptive new technologies that create entirely new industries and products.
With over 2,400 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange alone and about 4,000 tracked on NASDAQ, finding breakthrough technology stocks with huge potential can seem like finding a needle in a haystack.
It requires time, effort and expertise to uncover the true diamond-in-the-rough gems offering exponential gains. To do this right, I roll up my sleeves. I pinpoint trends. I hunt for companies that are disrupting the marketplace. I dive into financial statements, analyze reams of data, and interview CEOs and company insiders. I even uncover nuggets of intelligence hidden in investor conference calls.
I take all this information—literally thousands of hours of accumulated data—interpret it and identify those companies that have the best potential of booking market-beating gains over the next year and beyond. They boast proven resilience in bad economic times and skyrocket during recoveries. Let’s see how three of them have recently fared.
- Himax Technologies (NSDQ: HIMX)
One of the hottest tech trends now is the Internet of Things (IoT), whereby everyday objects—from industrial machines to utility meters to wearable devices—use built-in sensors to gather data, communicate, and take action.
The IoT trend will accelerate in 2018 and beyond, largely immune to scare-mongering headlines about, say, China or North Korea or rapid personnel turnover in the White House.
There’s been a spike in activity in the IoT realm this year, with activity in business and consumer applications already off to a flying start.
Himax this year launched a new Industrial IoT (IIoT) application, which it unveiled at the 2018 International Consumer Electronics Show in January. Called WiseEye IoT, it’s the industry’s first ultra-low power, always-on, intelligent visual sensor. WiseEye adds human presence awareness for consumer appliances and industrial IoT applications.
Global IoT spending is expected to rise from $800 billion in 2017 to nearly $1.4 trillion by 2021, according to research firm IDC.
According to recent surveys conducted by the research firm Software.org, companies increasingly view IoT as “a necessary tool,” with 58% of corporate leaders convinced that IoT is “strategic” to their business models, and another 24% seeing the technology as “transformational.”
Among the key industries incorporating connected devices are telecommunications, transportation, health care, energy, and agriculture. I expect WiseEye to prove a major growth driver for Himax.
Himax is a buy up to $20.00.
- Vuzix (NSDQ: VUZI)
This leading supplier of augmented reality (AR) smart glasses reported encouraging fourth quarter and full year operating results on March 16, setting the table for growth in 2018.
The company posted four consecutive periods of record quarterly revenue during 2017 and seven consecutive quarters of sequential quarterly revenue growth dating back to Q2 2016.
Smart glasses revenue increased 168% in FY17 compared to FY16, including four consecutive quarters of record smart glasses sales. Vuzix also strengthened its balance sheet with two common stock offerings during the second half of 2017, raising a combined net of $19.5 million in new equity capital.
Total revenues for the full year ended December 31, 2017 were $5.5 million compared to $2.1 million for the same period in 2016, an increase of 160%.
The net loss for the 12 months ended December 31, 2017 was ($21.3) million or ($1.02) per share versus a net loss of ($20.9) million or ($1.23) per share for the full year of 2016. The loss stemmed from significantly higher expenditures for marketing and research and development.
These investments in future growth already are paying off, as the company introduces new products and expands its distribution footprint.
For any BTP holding, I’m willing to put up with limited earnings losses, if the company also is experiencing revenue growth while at the same time investing that revenue into the business. That’s the case here.
Vuzix remains a buy up to $12.00.
- Western Digital (NSDQ: WDC)
Back in December, the semiconductor sector got clobbered because of unwarranted pessimism expressed by analysts. I wrote at the time that red-hot chip makers were due for a breather and I counseled patience with Western Digital. My advice has proven correct. WDC has since enjoyed a nice run that still has momentum.
Western Digital makes computer memory devices. Key products include hard disk drives and solid-state drives for a range of products. WDC is positioned in the booming field of cloud storage. That’s the right place to be.
The growing prevalence of virtual reality/augmented reality (VR/AR) applications and 3D imaging are additional long-term tailwinds for WDC.
Rumors are swirling on Wall Street that BTP holding Alphabet (NSDQ: GOOG) is looking to acquire a memory device maker to facilitate its ability to go head-to-head with Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN) for enhanced cloud storage capacity. An Alphabet buyout of Western Digital would be a boon for WDC shareholders, but the speculation is immaterial. WDC is worth owning on its own merits.
WDC has enjoyed robust appreciation in recent weeks but it’s still a value. The firm’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is only 7.6, compared to 17.4 for the S&P 500. And yet the stock’s growth prospects are outsized, making it a bargain at current prices.
The consensus estimate is that Western Digital will rack up year-over-year earnings growth of 37.20% in the current quarter, 10.90% in the next quarter, and 52.80% in the current year. My current calculations show that WDC should generate five-year earnings growth of at least 30%, on an annualized basis.
WDC is a buy up to $103.
John Persinos is chief investment strategist of Breakthrough Tech Profits.
Stock Talk
John N
Wow. HIMX is taking a beating this week. Any news out there or just tech jitters in general?
John Persinos
John N: Tech jitters definitely play a role. Technology stocks are getting clobbered across the board, especially small caps. That’s the nature of small-cap tech investing. The Facebook/Cambridge Analytica scandal weighs heavily on the entire sector.
As for Himax Technologies (NSDQ: HIMX) in particular, I think the stock still faces strong prospects. The company’s 2018 guidance is encouraging. But short sellers have been smearing the company.
My colleague Jim Pearce, chief investment strategist of our flagship publication Personal Finance, puts it best, so I’ll quote him:
“It has also become clear that [Himax] has been the target of periodic short-selling campaigns enabled by misinformation planted in the media designed to scare shareholders into dumping the stock. Over the long run, that type of activity should not have a material impact on the stock’s value.”
For my latest views on Himax, see my forthcoming Friday portfolio update.
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