Earnings season is now over for MLP Profits Portfolio Holdings. The good news: Despite some severe headwinds in North American energy sector, we had zero dividend cuts, and most of our MLPs laid the groundwork for growth in 2013 and beyond.

Here in brief is what’s important in the results of 12 more Portfolio MLPs. I’ve covered Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) and Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE) in this month’s Best Buys feature. To find analysis of the rest, see the list of links at the bottom of the article.

Note that the table “Tale of the Tape” shows the vital signs for all Holdings, including how they stack up on distributable cash flow (DCF) coverage ratios, fee income, debt coming due between now and the end of 2014 and distribution growth, the four factors that determine the MLP Profits Safety Rating. I’ve also shown performance for 2012 and year-to-date returns for 2013.

Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL) has been our biggest positive surprise this year.

Fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results trounced Wall Street estimates, and management stated for the first time that it plans to resume distribution growth in late 2013 or early 2014, depending on results.

The promise of a distribution increase should dispel any remaining worries about the current dividend rate.

So should the fourth-quarter DCF coverage ratio of 1.32-to-1.

Fourth-quarter cash flow excluding one-time items surged 41.6 percent, demonstrating recently acquired assets are at last living up to their potential.

The BORCO facility expansion is also on track, with 775,000 barrels of refined products capacity added to service in the fourth quarter and another 1.6 million set to begin operations by the end of March.

Full-year DCF came in at USD392.5 million. That total of roughly USD4.03 per unit failed to cover the four quarterly distributions of USD1.04 per share; the coverage ratio was 0.97-to-1. But that’s a dramatic narrowing of the shortfall of earlier in the year. And the owner of midstream assets should be able to cover and use a healthy chunk of cash for debt reduction as well in 2013.

Buckeye got another favorable bit of news in late February, as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission quelled uncertainty on pipeline tariffs with two important orders.

The first allows the company to continue charging current rates and gives it authority of use market-based rates on its existing lines. The second sets a hearing for a dispute between the company and users of jet fuel at New York City area airports but under clear parameters that should ensure an amicable settlement.

The result is the worries that drove Buckeye units under 45 in late 2012 have been largely answered. My expectation is still for a return to a trading range in the low to mid-60s, when management restores distribution growth later this year.

The only problem at this point is the unit price has rebounded above my buy target of USD55, but Buckeye Partners is a buy on any dip to that level.

DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM) has been challenged by weak conditions in North American natural gas liquids (NGLs) over the past year. Nevertheless, the MLP delivered on its distribution growth target and reported record levels of cash flow as well, thanks largely to asset additions.

Future profitability will be driven by the drop down of an additional interest in a major NGLs project in the Eagle Ford Shale from the general partner. This gives DCP an 80 percent interest in a facility with 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of processing capacity.

The partnership has now raised distributions for nine consecutive quarters, and the fourth-quarter coverage ratio of 1.32-to-1 argues we’ll see more, though NGLs prices will remain a headwind in 2013.

Management is targeting distribution growth of 6 percent to 8 percent in 2013 and 6 percent to 10 percent in 2014, largely on the strength of that asset growth. And because most of these deals are acquisitions rather than new construction cash flow from them is largely locked in.

The results earn DCP a slightly higher buy target. Investors, however, should note that–unlike our Conservative Holdings–this MLP’s cash flow expectations can be affected by commodity prices. Although these assumptions appear to be conservative after a rather rough year, they could worsen and reduce cash flow and distribution growth.

Leverage is also slightly higher than management’s target, a factor that could also reduce future distribution growth if NGLs should weaken enough. For now, however, DCP is a buy up to 42 for those who don’t already own it.

Note that DCP’s margin is now 90 percent fee-based or hedged for 2013, which should prevent any severe cash flow volatility.

Eagle Rock Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EROC) reported a 12 percent sequential gain in its cash flow adjusted for one-time items. DCF rose 9 percent, though it failed to cover the payout with a 0.91-to-1 coverage ratio.

The fourth-quarter distribution as declared is 5 percent higher than the year-earlier payout, but there was no increase from the third quarter.  This in itself isn’t unusual. But combined with the low payout coverage it does raise questions whether Eagle Rock’s cash flow is still on track for 2013 and whether real distribution risk has risen.

The key to recovery is the MLP’s ability to integrate recently acquired assets, particularly the Texas Panhandle midstream facilities purchased from BP Plc (NYSE: BP) in October.

Management has proven its ability to buy and absorb in the past, including two big deals closed last year. And the BP deal is under a 20-year fixed-fee arrangement with the Super Oil. Also encouraging is the company’s connection with Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) in western Louisiana.

The ability to reach arrangements with large, well-capitalized energy companies that can thrive in the current turbulence is critical to midstream MLPs’ ability to generate expected cash flows and pay distributions. And despite the DCF shortfall, that still appears the case with Eagle Rock.

No one, however, should make the mistake that this one is as safe as our Conservative Holdings. And there is exposure to energy prices through natural gas reserves, though these have been considerably written down and the company is still enjoying success drilling. Eagle Rock Energy Partners is a hold.

Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL), as I note in In Brief, has increased its distribution for the 30th consecutive quarter. And for the 25th time during this stretch the boost is at an annualized rate of better than 10 percent.

Being able to consistently achieve that rate of growth is largely a testament to Genesis’ relatively small size and the corresponding ability to move the profit meter with smaller projects than, for example, Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) would.

One such very low-risk project, for example, is the company’s USD125 million investment to expand infrastructure connecting Exxon Mobil Corp’s (NYSE: XOM) Baton Rouge refinery, announced this month.

Genesis too has been fortunate in landing some big and profitable fish as customers, securing revenue. That adds a great deal of visibility and reliability to future results, even as the company continues to routinely report strong current results.

Available cash before reserves–Genesis’ equivalent to DCF–surged 35 percent in the fourth quarter over last year’s levels. Coverage of 1.28-to-1 remained exceptionally solid and leaves plenty of cash to fund development and keep debt under control.

Management has also been successful terming out debt, leaving more available under credit agreements to fund further growth.

My only problem with Genesis right now is the unit price, which has soared more than USD10 beyond my most recent target of USD35.

The current yield of barely 4 percent reflects buying momentum and possible takeover speculation. Insiders own more than 17 percent of the stock but were active sellers back in the USD30s.

Those with big gains should take partial profits now. New buyers should wait for a better price to enter Genesis Energy.

Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY) increased its distribution for the ninth consecutive quarter in late January.

The increase was half a cent for a 0.9 percent boost, and just 3.6 percent above last year’s level. Moreover, DCF once again failed to cover it, with a ratio of just 0.76-to-1.

The remarkable consistency of the MLP’s distribution growth has no doubt kept many investors interested. And fourth-quarter results did top what management had been expecting.

But the real question is what will happen to bring coverage ratios up in 2013, supporting the current payout and its growth.

Production was hardly impressive in 2012, with fourth-quarter output up just 6.5 percent, though full-year output was up 13 percent. That should improve as a full year of output from a USD502.6 million acquisition in the Permian Basin is added in.

And Legacy did manage to lift reserves 31 percent last year, largely from those deals. The MLP was also successful in permanently financing its purchases, including with equity.

Management pointed out in its fourth-quarter presentation that not counting the impact of the Permian Basin acquisition DCF would have covered the payout by a 1.12-to-1 margin.

That means so long as these properties produce as expected there should be no problems maintaining the current payout policy.

The risk here is if management is unable to make things happen as it expects, and/or if there’s a drop in assumptions for realized selling prices for energy. The company has entered some hedging to protect its margins, including pricing differentials, though these have thankfully narrowed considerably due to improved transport capacity.

The upshot is we’re going to stick with Legacy based on these numbers. But investors should be aware that there will be distribution risk until the coverage ratio goes back over 1-to-1. Legacy Reserves is a hold.

Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: MCEP) lifted its heavily oil-weighted fourth-quarter output by 52.7 percent to 2,261 barrels of oil equivalent a day. That in turn pushed up distributable cash flow by 106.3 percent, producing a solid coverage ratio of 1.23-to-1.

Mid-Con also increased its net proved reserves–which are 99 percent oil–by 31 percent.

These results are particularly impressive in light of headwinds facing many small oil and gas producers in North America. The company held an average realized selling price of roughly USD90 a barrel for its oil, thanks to a solid hedging program and the location of its wells, which minimized the impact of price differentials due to transportation bottlenecks.

Looking ahead, management plans to continue growing output and locking in prices for it aggressively. And given the success in drilling so far, it’s been able to do so with a fair degree of confidence for meeting production targets.

Some 76.3 percent of estimated 2013 output was locked in as of March 5, as was 70.3 percent of projected 2014 production and 5.4 percent of 2015.

Mid-Con boosted its distribution by a penny per unit in both October and January and looks set to do so again next month. During the company’s fourth-quarter conference call, management reiterated a forecast for 6 percent to 8 percent annual payout growth, based on expected production levels and prices.

Output is forecast between 2,525 and 2,675 barrels of oil equivalent per day based on the existing capital spending plans and development inventory, which is focused on waterflood development. Targets could be revised somewhat higher if the company turns more acquisitions, as management has proven its willingness and ability to do over the past year.

The greatest risk with any small producer is it has fewer wells than a larger producer, which means that there’s less margin for error for this MLP. That also means greater potential upside. Mid-Con Energy Partners is a buy only for aggressive investors up to USD26.50.

Oiltanking Partners LP (NYSE: OILT) has once again proved its bona fides as a Conservative Holding, turning in strong fourth-quarter 2012 numbers this week.

Cash flow excluding one-time items surged 25.1 percent, operating income was 34 percent higher and distributable cash flow rose 17.8 percent. That pushed the coverage ratio to a solid 1.14-to-1, backing up the January distribution increase and promising more in 2013.

The business model is simple. With record volumes of oil now being produced in North America, there’s a growing need for storage such as this MLP constructs and operates. The company handled more than 300 million barrels of crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and refined products in 2012.

And Oiltanking Partners continues to grow its capacity, adding 1,045,000 barrels of storage under long-term take-or-pay contracts thus far in the first quarter of 2013.

“Take or pay” means the customer must pay up whether it uses the space or not. That means whatever OilTanking Partners invests it can be assured of a robust return, no matter what happens to oil prices.

The MLP plans to spend between USD135 million and USD145 million on major new projects this year, with a target of 25 million barrels plus capacity by the end of 2014. This year’s cash flow will get a boost from two major projects completed in 2012.

The unit price is the only negative for the MLP now, as it has surged more than 15 percent above my target of USD40. But future distribution growth will make this one worth progressively more going forward. And those yet to take positions will almost certainly have a much better opportunity to get in. We’re currently up about 33 percent from our initial entry point in November 2012.

Buy Oiltanking Partners on dips to USD40 or lower.

PVR Partners LP (NYSE: PVR) again failed to cover its distribution, with a coverage ratio of just 0.65-to-1 for the fourth quarter. And the shortfall wasn’t attributable to any one division, as midstream system growth slowed and coal royalties took a hit both from lower pricing and reduced mining activity on PVR’s lands.

On the other hand, PVR management remains supremely confident in the company’s prospects. The 1.9 percent distribution increase announced Jan. 28 is the eighth consecutive quarterly boost and represents a 7.8 percent hike from year-earlier levels.

The key to PVR as an investment in 2013 is how effective management will be in realizing its cash flow goals, vis-à-vis the current distribution policy. The company has reduced its 2013 expectations for midstream assets both in Appalachia and in the Western US as well as for coal mining.

So the current assumptions appear to be conservative. But as fourth-quarter numbers showed, this is a volatile time for both businesses.

On the plus side, fourth-quarter average daily natural gas throughput from the company’s systems was 1.388 billion cubic feet, more than double the 683 million cubic feet recorded in 2011. The Eastern Midstream unit’s cash flow rose 272 percent, reflecting the rapid growth of operations serving the liquids-rich Marcellus Shale.

The water venture with Aqua America Inc (NYSE: WTR) is now also operational and will begin adding to earnings starting in the first quarter. So will expansion of the Chief Gathering LLC systems acquired in 2012, which services a prolific dry gas basin.

These operations are primarily fee-based. So as new assets are added they pretty much flow right to the bottom line and to distributable cash flow. On the other hand, they need new contracts before management can grow the assets, and these appear to have slowed a bit as producers have become a bit more conservative with drilling plans.

As for coal mining royalties, Asian buyers have recently not filled the demand shortfall in the US, which is mainly caused by utilities switching to natural gas-fired power. There are signs of stabilizing conditions for the black mineral. But this is likely to remain a headwind for cash flow to offset the gains in midstream operations.

Over time midstream will become more important and coal less so. Planned growth-focused capital spending of USD350 million to USD400 million for 2013 will continue to accelerate the switch. But this depends on the ability of PVR to attract new business.

During the fourth-quarter conference call this week, management declined to give DCF guidance for the rest of the year. That raised the question of whether a distribution cut is being contemplated, which CEO William Shea answered by stating “the confidence level in the increase in EBITDA (cash flow) and DCF growth is there and supports the distribution increase on an as-paid basis.”

Management also affirmed a statement from the previous quarterly conference call that “coverage ratios on the distribution would be increasing quarter-to-quarter.” And combined with PVR’s low price, that’s sufficient for me to weight the odds in its favor and keep it in the Portfolio. But until we see some more encouraging numbers, PVR Partners is a hold.

Regency Energy Partners LP’s (NYSE: RGP) acquisition of the gathering and processing assets of the former Southern Union–a drop-down from general partner Energy Transfer Equity LP (NYSE: ETE)–is its biggest news of recent weeks. Despite adding some commodity-price exposure, it may already be paying off with a lower cost of capital thanks to a revision in outlook to “positive” by Moody’s.

As I note in this month’s Best Buys feature, Regency’s most likely end game is as prey for Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP), with which it shares Energy Transfer Equity as a general partner. This sponsorship means the risk of owning Regency is less than would otherwise be the case for an MLP with a fourth-quarter coverage ratio of just 0.87-to-1.

Other pluses include the 14 percent bump in cash flow, which was in large part due to the success of the company’s infrastructure ventures. The most important of these is the Lone Star natural gas liquids partnership with Energy Transfer Partners, connecting the Eagle Ford Shale. The company also has the advantage of operating in one of the most prolific drilling regions of the Southwest, keeping its project pipeline full.

Cash flows appear to be in place to at least maintain the current distribution rate, and full year coverage of 0.95-to-1 was better than the fourth-quarter rate. That’s enough reason to keep holding onto this MLP, which has consistently traded below our buy target, even before the Southern Union deal. But the real appeal for Regency is ultimately in combination of Energy Transfer Partners. Regency Energy Partners is a hold.

Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE: NGLS) has also seen its unit price take a roller-coaster ride along with natural gas liquids prices.

The important thing for investors, however, is management’s own guidance–including the distribution growth forecast of 10 to 12 percent–hasn’t changed.

The midstream company’s DCF coverage is admittedly thin at just 1-to-1. The key is the visibility of cash flows for the partnership as well as sponsorship of Targa Resources Corp (NYSE: TRGP).

That’s related to the fee-based nature of the partnership’s assets, and it provides a level of surety to payout plans.

Targa Resources Partners currently has USD1.7 billion of announced growth capital projects expected to start generating cash flow in 2013 and 2014, USD1.1 billion of which are slated to produce this year. These projects are secured by contracts with strong industry players, including in new areas of development for the MLP, such as the Badlands.

Last year the company brought USD200 million of organic projects into service, which will add fee-based margin to 2013 results. This should provide the fuel for DCF, despite what management expects to be a dilutive impact from the Badlands investment this year.

What could go wrong here? Despite a strong regional and market position, further deterioration of NGLs prices would take a toll on immediate cash flows. And it’s possible some of these projects could see interest and customers dry up. But the risk at this point appears to be to growth rather than the current payout level.

That means buyers below our target of USD44 should fare well with Targa Resources Partners.

Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) also trades below buy target despite a solid fourth quarter that included a 22 percent boost in distributable cash flow.

The catalyst was incremental DCF resulting from the purchase of a 52 percent interest in six liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers acquired in February 2012 as well as interests purchased in three other vessels.

Unlike much of the global shipping industry, LNG is very much a growth industry, with new export sources set to come on in earnest in Australia the next few years and later from Canada.

Teekay’s business model is basically to pick up interests in new ships, fully contract them for the long haul and collect the cash flows. And management continues to be quite successful in making that happen.

The company has also broadened its business to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), an exciting alternative in vehicular fuel. And it has extended its range of contacts and customers to a global network, increasing potential tonnage and therefore cash generating ability.

Unfortunately, like most tanker companies Teekay isn’t immune from client weakness. And the company as forced during the fourth quarter to amend contracts for two Suezmax tankers, reducing cash flows for 2013. The impact is expected to be offset by new LPG business but still may slow distribution growth.

This last point likely explains the extreme volatility in Teekay LNG Partners’ units in recent weeks. The silver lining is this is still a very well-positioned company and we’ll almost certainly see a distribution increase of some sort, probably in May. Until then Teekay LNG Partners is a solid long-term buy up to USD41.

Vanguard Natural Resources LLC’s (NYSE: VNR) 2012 results were affected by volatility and downside in natural gas prices. But these factors didn’t prevent the company from rolling up record cash flow, production and proven reserves for the year.

The key was roughly USD800 million in successful acquisitions, which enabled a 66.6 percent boost in fourth-quarter daily production. This more than offset lower realized selling prices, resulting in solid distribution coverage of 1.15-to-1 for the quarter and 1.08-to-1 for the full year.

And the company has set even more explosive guidance for 2013, including total barrels of oil equivalent per day output of 31,350 to 33,317 and a mid-point distribution coverage ratio of 1.11-to-1.

That should allow another year of record DCF, which Vanguard grew 28 percent in 2012. The company realized USD4.47 per million cubic foot for its natural gas, demonstrating the effectiveness of hedging. Realized selling prices for oil were less impressive at USD84 per barrel but nonetheless solid in light of dislocations in the North American oil market.

Looking ahead, management expects considerable production gains from places further away from Texas refineries, such as the Williston Basin. That will make differentials more important to manage, though this year’s results show executives should be up to the task.

The company reports it’s hedged more than 90 percent of anticipated crude output through 2016 and 85 percent-plus of its projected gas production through June 30, 2017.

That’s a lot of certainty in what’s fundamentally a volatile industry. Coupled with what appear to be fairly stable finances with no near-term maturity needs, the company appears to be in good shape to weather what could be another tough year for most energy producers.

The monthly dividend is another incentive to buy Vanguard Natural Resources up to USD30 if you haven’t yet.

All the Numbers

Here’s where to find facts and analysis for MLP Profits Portfolio Holdings’ fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results.

• Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL)–March Portfolio Update
• DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM)–March Portfolio Update
• Eagle Rock Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EROC)–March Portfolio Update
• El Paso Energy Partners LP (NYSE: EPB)–February Portfolio Update
• Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP)–March Best Buys
• Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD)–February Portfolio Update
• Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL)–March Portfolio Update
• Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE: NRGM)–February Best Buy
• Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP)–February Portfolio Update
• Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY)–March Portfolio Update
• Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE)–March Best Buys
• Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)–February Portfolio Update
• Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: MCEP)–March Portfolio Update
• Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM)–February Portfolio Update
• Oiltanking Partners LP (NYSE: OILT)–March Portfolio Update
• PVR Partners LP (NYSE: PVR)–March Portfolio Update
• Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE: RGP)–March Portfolio Update
• Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP)–February Portfolio Update
• Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE: NGLS)–March Portfolio Update
• Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP)–March Portfolio Update
• Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (NYSE: VNR)–March Portfolio Update