Bed Bath & Beyond: An Exercise in Damage Control
Yesterday (September 26), Bed Bath & Beyond (NasdaqGS: BBBY) released Q2 results that came in well below expectations. The company reported EPS (earnings per share) of 36 cents compared to the analysts’ consensus estimate of 50 cents. Although total revenue was flat, same-store sales fell while analysts were predicting a slight increase.
No matter how you slice it, it was an ugly quarter that calls into question the competency (and job security) of the company’s senior management team. Its share price dropped below $15 this morning on more than ten times its average daily volume.
That’s bad news since BBBY was put to us last month at a strike price of $20.
Okay, so we have a situation somewhat reminiscent of what happened with Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) earlier this year. In that case, we eventually made money on SEP by waiting for its share price to recover and then writing a covered call against it.
In this case, I don’t believe BBBY will recover as quickly as SEP did so waiting for its share price to get back up into the upper-teens could tie up capital in this trade longer than some would like. For those investors, I am suggesting a different course of action to consider that would effectively roll this trade down to a lower strike price so they may exit the position earlier.
To be clear, the strategy I am suggesting is not without risk. There’s a chance you may end up owning more shares of BBBY, so if you’d rather ride it out and wait for the stock to recover then you can ignore the rest of this article.
What I suggest below is not an official trade recommendation so it will not be tracked in the Income Millionaire portfolio table. It is intended as a suggestion for investors who had shares of BBBY put them last month and would like an alternative strategy to consider.
Since I’m the guy that recommended selling the put on BBBY in the first place, I feel I owe it to you to suggest a way of getting out of it at minimal loss.
Here’s how it works.
First, I suggest selling a new short put against BBBY at the $15 strike price that expires on January 18 for a minimum premium of $1.50 ($150 per contract). If this contract ends up being assigned to you, the option premium received reduces your effective cost basis to $13.50.
When we first sold a short put on BBBY in June, we recommended a minimum premium of $1.25 for a $20 strike price. That reduced our cost basis in the shares we currently own to $18.75.
As I see it, there are three categories of potential outcomes that will dictate how well this trade works out.
SCENARIO 1 – BBBY does not rise above $15 by the January 18 expiration date
If the new short put trade expires in-the-money and is exercised against you, then the average cost basis for the two contracts works out to $16.125 [=(18.75+13.50)/2].
It is considerably more likely that you will be able to write a profitable covered call against the combined position at a cost basis of $16.125 than at $18.75.
It is impossible to judge precisely where BBBY will bottom out, but given how heavy (and one-sided) the trading volume is today it is likely that the stock will recover a bit once the initial wave of sell orders have been executed.
After that, I expect the stock to trade flat until results from the holiday shopping season are reported in late November.
SCENARIO 2 – BBBY does rise above $15 by the January 18 expiration date
If Bed Bath & Beyond reports decent holiday sales and its share price rallies above $15 prior to our January expiration, then this put will expire out-of-the-money meaning we don’t have to buy the stock.
In that case, the $1.25 premium we received reduces our effective cost basis in the original position to $17.25 [=18.75-1.50].
Since under this scenario BBBY has already rallied above $15 and presumably has some upward momentum behind it, we should not have to wait long before we can write a profitable covered call against it.
SCENARIO 3 – BBBY does not rise above $15 by the January 18 expiration date and continues to fall
Of course, the biggest risk to this strategy is that Bed Bath & Beyond goes the way of Sears Holdings (NasdaqGS: SHLD) and never recovers. If that happens, then reducing our cost basis won’t help much. Obviously, if I thought that was likely to occur then I’d suggest simply selling your shares of BBBY now and eating the loss.
The good news is Bed Bath & Beyond generates strong cash flow so it has the means to take corrective action. Also, its debt/equity ratio is sustainable so it is not a near-term risk of coming under the control of its creditors.
If anything, the fact that BBBY is now trading well below its book value may entice an activist investor to step in and restructure the company. In that case, we may be able to write a profitable covered call against this position sooner than expected.
Stock Talk
Stanley
Hi Jim,
I hope I am not out of line, I thought of a 4 scenario.
January 2019
Buy to open 12.50 P
Sell to open 15.00 P
Spread this morning 1.02
We will own no stock
What are your thoughts.
Thanks
Stan
Jim Pearce
Hi Stan. If you don’t want to risk owning the stock then that’s a good trade. The challenge with implementing any of these strategies is that BBBY is so volatile at the moment. However, that also provides the opportunity to execute both sides of the trade at favorable prices if you time it right.
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Victor
GM Jim, Thanks for the alternates and I have a quick question for you. As you had mentioned when we were assigned the shares the cost was 18.75. I sold Oct calls against it and received 0.75 credit. That leaves my basis to $18. I am thinking of trying to sell $18 calls for 0.70 (its currently showing 0.65). What are your thoughts about this approach. If it sells I will be almost break even with fees etc. If it does not my cost basis will be 17.30 and I can make another attempt.
Thanks for your help
Victor
correction. $17.50 Jan calls not $18 calls
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Jim Pearce
Since you sold the $18 call you are in a more advantageous position than those of us who did not, so what you propose makes sense. However you do it, the overarching objective is to ultimately close out the position with minimal damage and not get too greedy. If I thought BBBY might come roaring back to life in a few months then I would not limit my upside by selling a covered call right now, but in this case anything near breakeven would be a victory.
Victor
Thank you
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Jim Pearce
BBBY is up 25% over the past two days and closed today above the $15 strike price mentioned in the article above after reporting stronger than expected Q3 results earlier this week: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bed-bath-beyond-inc-reports-211500317.html. I’ll provide further guidance next Friday when this option expires. If we get a little more lift out of BBY in the weeks to come then we may be able to write a covered call that gets us back to breakeven.
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Jim Pearce
BBY is up more than 25% this morning based on news of a possible overhaul of the company: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bed-bath-beyond-activist-investors-132550061.html. Now trading near $17.50, if you have followed my advice on this position from the beginning then you should be able to either sell the stock outright or write a covered call to recoup your original investment plus a small gain. It wasn’t easy and it wasn’t fun, but this position has been a good lesson in being patient and using options to turn a big loser into a small winner that can be applied to some of our other positions.
Victor
Hi Jim, Followed your advice and sold the position earlier today. Thank you for everything
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