February Options Expiration Update
We have three short puts expiring next Friday, two of which (Huntsman and Prologis) are comfortably out-of-the-money and should expire worthless (which is what we want to happen).
However, our short put on Macy’s is currently deep in-the-money and will most likely be exercised against us barring a 20% jump in its share price within the next week. Macy’s share price took a hit a month ago when the company announced its holiday sales results and reduced its Q4 guidance as a result.
If Macy’s ends up being put to you (or has been already), I advise hanging on to it and writing a covered call. When we issued that Trade Alert in November, we sold a put at the $30 strike price for a limit price of $1.75. That works out to a net cost basis of $28.25. As of yesterday’s close, we could sell a call at the $27 strike price expiring on May 17 for a premium of $1.60. If that option were exercised against us then the next proceeds would be $28.60, producing a small profit on this position.
Macy’s is scheduled to release its Q4 and year-end results the last week of this month. Since it has already guided lower for revenue and earnings, it is unlikely the company will fall short of the revised figures. However, any unexpected good news could push its share price higher. For that reason, you may want to consider waiting until after those results have been made public to write a covered call against it.
Of course, we still have one more week to go before our current put expires so I will wait until then to revise the portfolio for the results of all three of these positions.
Stock Talk
KP
Any chance SIG could get assigned early?
Jim Pearce
Yes, although normally someone wanting to cash in on that option now would simply sell it rather than exercise it to pick up the additional time premium.
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Darryl Coit
Does rolling the M put look plausible?
Jim Pearce
Sorta. I think M has found a near-term bottom at $25, so selling a new put near that strike price could effectively roll it out several more months. You would not receive enough premium to fully buy back the current put option, but you could cut the size of the loss in half (using the May 17, $26 strike as an example).
Darryl Coit
Thanks. I rolled it to May with $27 strike for a $45 loss.
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Daniel Long
Is that roll an official trade?
DL
Jim Pearce
Not yet, but it may be soon. The premium for that option dropped after the December retail figure for December was announced earlier this week so that trade is not possible at the moment.
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