Bear Hug From Wal-Mart Triple Put Play
As if consumer product companies didn’t have enough headaches, a recent Reuters story reports that mega-customer Walmart is putting another bear squeeze on its suppliers.
Each of the following companies counts Wal-mart and Target as a large customer, suffers weak sales growth and has a mountain of debt.
Spectrum, Edgewell and Church & Dwight all report earnings over the next month. I expect shares to be under pressure as investors come to grips with the difficulties in growing profits in this tough environment.
Buy to open the July 21, 2017 put on Spectrum Brands (SPB) with a strike price of $130 at $3.20 or lower. Symbol (SPB170721P130)
Buy to open the July 21, 2017 put on Church & Dwight (CHD) with a strike price of $45.00 at 35c or lower. Symbol (CHD170721P45)
Buy to open the May 19, 2017 put on Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) with a strike price of $65.00 at 80c or lower. Symbol (EPC170519P65)
According to the report, Walmart recently met with suppliers and requested they lower prices materially. Other large domestic customers like Target, Kroger and Walgreens have all reported weak sales. Walgreen’s most recent period showed a 3% decline in retail sales.
Target’s sales were down 6% last year and are not expected to improve this year until the company realigns its product mix. In its most recent call, Target COO John Mulligan complained that the retailer simply had too much inventory and would be stocking significantly less product in its warehouses.
EVENTS
Date: May 2, 9 am (EST) Spectrum Brands (NYSE: SPB) second quarter results.
Call: To access the live audio conference call, U.S. participants may call 877-556-5260. The conference call ID number is 92829532
Listen For: Spectrum has enjoyed benefits to profit margins from the company’s May 2015 $1.4 billion purchase of highly profitable Armor All and STP auto brands. Listen for trends in “organic” sales and expectations for price growth versus unit growth. Pressure in price growth will hurt profits.
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Date: May 4, 10 am (EST) Church & Dwight (NYSE: CHD) first quarter earnings call.
Call: To participate, dial 877-322-9846 within the U.S. and Canada, or 631-291-4539 internationally, using access code 1600385 or listen to the webcast on the company’s investor relations page.
Listen For: Church & Dwight derives 84% of its sales from the U.S. and Wal-mart accounts for almost one quarter of its business. What are plans for price “adjustments” in 2017?
Its brand portfolio includes Arm & Hammer, Oxiclean and Lil’ Critters gummy vitamins. None are in growth mode. Revenue was down 3% last year and pricing pressures will likely crunch profits this year. Listen for trends in laundry dosing, which has been in decline.
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Date: Late April- Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE: EPC) second quarter earnings call.
Call: Details to be sent when announced
Listen For: Edgewell derives 63% of its revenue from its wet shave products, including Schick razors. The razor category is under massive assault from low priced home delivery razor firms like Dollar Shave.
What is Edgewell’s plan to get some of that business back? Look for terms like promotions and “planogram” adjustments, a fancy term for losing shelf space.
Stock Talk
Cesare
Linda;
Should these Triple PUT Plays be at at GTC or end of day?
Linda McDonough
Cesare,
I would buy them as close to my limit prices as possible but I would update on a daily basis in case some big news comes over night. So I would make them day trades and then renew tomorrow if not filled.
Linda
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Cesare
Thanks….will do
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Roger Dehring
Good morning, Linda,
This will be the first trade of your recommendations I have done, so hello.
Did the SPB trade, however, not as straight forward as you recommended. Bought a SPB JUL 130/125/120 butterfly for a debit of -$0.57. Paid for much of that by selling a one-third position of SPB JUL 145/150 credit call spread for +$1.21.
Thanks for the trade, Linda,
Roger
Linda McDonough
Thanks for the update Roger. Let me know how that works out.
Best,
Linda
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John
Hi Linda
I haven’t had my orders filled yet on the triple play. I went in again today and lowered them . Did many people get order filled ? Or am I missing something ?
Thanks
John
Linda McDonough
Hi John,
The puts for SPB and CHD are trading just above the limits that I suggested. If you raise your price a bit you should get filled. EPC traded down yesterday so those puts are a bit more expensive but still offer good value. Most subscribers find if they put in a bid right in the middle of the spread they will get filled.
Right now the prices below would be at that mid-point:
SPB July 130P: $3.35
CHD: July 45P: 40c
EPC: May 65P: $1.00
It’s always tricky for me to suggest a limit price when the option series haven’t traded much. These series are now more active so hopefully, you won’t have a problem.
Let me know if this works for you.
Best,
Linda
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Brad L
Good Morning: I still haven’t filled the Church & Dwight (CHD) option. I don’t think it ever got to the $0.35. The mid point is currently at $0.43 and your recommendation was $0.35 or lower. Should I raise my limit to the current midpoint or just cancel the order? Thoughts? Thanks. Brad
Linda McDonough
Brad,
Yes, I think you can raise your limit to $0.43 and you should get filled. The food group has actually been pretty strong during the sell-off (some view it as a safe haven) but I expect these stocks to drop as earnings are announced.
Best,
Linda
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Johan Jones
Linda,
I noticed with the options, you give us an entry strategy, but no exit strategy or thoughts on when to take profits. Is this something you could add to your trades? I new to this and I truly need an exit strategy.
Just a thought.
Kind Regards,
Johan
Linda McDonough
Johan,
I do not have a target price for the options but do issue sell alerts when closing them out. You can click on the closed tab to see the results of closing out the option trades. Keep in mind that option prices change dramatically day to day so even if one is currently losing money that can change quickly.
Almost always the option trades are tied to an event when I hope to close it out.
Most of the time I sell the options before they expire. If an option is in the money when it expires you can also choose to exercise it and be long or short the stock. I will give you instructions if this is the case.
A sell alert is issued when I close out any position. You should receive that via email and text if you are set up for text alerts.
Please let me know if you have any other questions.
Best,
Linda
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