Buying Opportunities in Ichor Systems and Kroger Puts
The abbreviated week for the stock market was a quiet one. Volume was thin as some traders took advantage of the long-awaited East Coast spring, which happily coincided with the market close on Friday. Public companies, well into their quiet periods, restrained from issuing press releases or speaking with investors.
Without much corporate news, stocks took their orders from geopolitical events. Rising tension between the U.S. and North Korea and two attacks by American bombs sent some investors scurrying to the sidelines.
Although it’s never fun to go through a week where the S&P is sagging, I think it’s quite healthy for the market to digest some its gains. Overall economic news remains solid despite some dips in payroll growth and the consumer price index. The overall trend in this data supports what I call the Goldilocks Economy, one in which growth is not “too hot” and not “too cold.”
Although the pace of earnings announcements will pick up this week, our portfolio doesn’t have any events scheduled until early May. The first earnings release on the calendar is currently Integrated Device Technology’s earnings on May 1.
I’ll keep you abreast of news events and information regarding conference calls where I am looking for a specific piece of information or data point.
In the news around our portfolio:
Put position Kroger (NYSE: KR) continued to drop as the stock moved higher. News of Jana Partners taking a large position in Whole Foods (NYSE: WFM) lifted the entire grocery group. Traders speculated that Jana would enlist Kroger or privately held Albertson’s as a partner to revamp Whole Foods. Based on Jana’s history, I find this unlikely as the private equity firm typically uses its robust internal team to devise turnaround plans.
I think the put trade is still a good one and would suggest anyone looking for a new option trade to buy these July 27.5 puts which are trading about 60c versus my $1.03 entry point. Bullish speculation should be replaced with disappointment in sales and profit trends when Kroger announces earnings on June 15.
Criteo (NSDQ: CRTO) continues to win friends. After the SunTrust upgrade last week Citi analyst Mark Kelley and Cowen analyst Thomas Champion joined the crowd in recommending the stock.
Citi raised its price target to $58 from $51, and Cowen raised its target from $55 to $60. Both believe the company is well-positioned to grab more share of ad tech marketing dollars and think the company’s first quarter earnings (due early May) will come in ahead of expectations.
Ichor Systems (NSDQ: ICHR) fell 12% last week when it filed a $100 million secondary. Based on current prices this will equal about 6 million shares. Although the preliminary prospectus did not disclose the sellers, it is likely Francisco Partners who owns almost three-quarters of Ichor’s shares.
I think this is a great buying opportunity for subscribers. All insider selling is not a bearish indicator. It is very common for a large insider group like this to peel off layers of stock in the 12-24 months post-IPO. The increase in float, or shares available to trade, opens the stock up to larger institutional buyers.
Also, the filing of a deal can be considered a bullish indicator. Ichor management certainly knows how sales and profits came in for the first quarter and would not open itself up to lawsuits that would result from reporting a disappointing quarter immediately after a stock sale.
As always please post any questions or comments on the Stock Talk page and I’ll be happy to respond as quickly as possible.
Stock Talk
John
Linda
I have an BIG option set to expire today . Did you recommend that or Jim ?
Thanks
John
Linda McDonough
John,
That must be Jim’s trade. I did buy and sell a BIG put back in December but that option had a January expiration.
Best,
Linda
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John
Thanks Linda
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Charles
Linda, ICHR has rebounded since this recommendation. I’ve closed some positions and have money available. Do you still think ICHR is a good buy after the rebound? Do you have a target for them?
As always, THANKS
Charles
Linda McDonough
Charles,
Yes, I think ICHR is still a great buy here. My target is $29 and I have a buy up to limit of $22 on the stock. The stock may dip today as it announced that insiders will be selling 4.5 million shares in a secondary.
It also pre-announced good results for the first and second quarter.
First quarter revenue should be $148.7 million versus estimates of $146 million and e.p.s. of $.57 versus estimates of $.56. Second-quarter sales will be even better, $152-162 million versus estimates of $140 million. Actual results will be out on May 11.
Best,
Linda
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DR083157
Still long the KR puts?
Linda McDonough
Hello,
Yes- I still think the stock will come under pressure when it reports on June 15. The puts have quite a bit of time until expiration. Also, there is a news story that Albertson’s is considering bidding for Whole Foods, which may put a damper on KR’s stock.
Best,
Linda
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