Bearish Discount Trades Deliver, New Regulations Benefit Chemours and More…

It was a successful week for our bearish trades.

In an unusual trifecta, three discounters announced sluggish results. Dollar Tree (NSDQ: DLTR) kicked off the bad news with its unsightly numbers on Wednesday. We did not have a position in this particular stock, but the news was bad enough to drag down the entire group.

That event was followed by Dollar General’s (NYSE: DG) soft quarter on Thursday and Big Lots’ (NYSE: BIG) big disappointment Friday morning.

The Dollar General puts delivered a 41% gain. Depending on your particular entry and exit points, your gains may differ from the ones I post on the site. Big Lots generated an even higher profit.

Due to travel plans, I issued a sell alert on the Big Lots’ put before the market open on Friday. This scenario can be difficult to maneuver as pre-open indications on prices can be volatile. Luckily, Big Lots opened even lower than I expected, dishing over a greater than 100% gain.

I know I mentioned more trade ideas coming along soon, but a busy schedule kept me from doing so last week. Fear not, the new trades are imminent!

Around the Portfolio:

Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NSDQ: ATSG) delivered a Boeing 767-300 converted freighter to Amerijet International Airlines under an eight-year dry lease. This delivery brings the total number of 767 freighters leased to Amerijet up to six.

Mike Berger, Chief Commercial Officer of ATSG, said, “We are pleased to support the growth and business success of Amerijet as it expands its cargo network from its main hub at Miami International Airport. We look forward to providing Amerijet with even more of our 767 freighters in the future as it takes on additional business from customers throughout Latin America.”

Air Transport delivered three newly converted 767-300s in 2018. It expects to complete freighter conversion of seven more 767-300s and deliver them to customers by the end of 2018.

Abbvie (NYSE: ABBV) completed its Dutch auction with 72.3 million shares repurchased at $103. Early indications were for a smaller share amount at $105. I’m still looking into the odd adjustment to the price and share amount.

Big Lots reported a disastrous quarter. Earnings missed the $1.18 estimate by a whopping $.23 and sales were less than expected.

Guidance for the year is cut by $.27, a cut I don’t think it nearly big enough considering how weak the current trends are. Comp sales are down 3%, but inventory per store is up 1.6%.

Despite a $100 million stock repurchase plan, the company did not buy back any stock in the first quarter, which indicates they don’t think it’s a grand bargain. It continues to search for a new CEO since the retirement of David Campisi. It is unclear who is at the helm to help the company navigate these tricky times.

The Chemours Company (NYSE: CC), signed a distributor agreement with Arkema for the distribution of Opteon XP40 in the European Union to meet the growing demand for low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants under the F-Gas Regulation.

The 2018 F-Gas cap and phasedown reduction of 37% have generated significant demand for low GWP alternatives to replace legacy products such as R-404A/R-507A.  XP40 is currently the refrigerant of choice among leading supermarkets, retailers, contractors, distributors and end-users in the EU for retrofit and new equipment, delivering improved performance with a more sustainable environmental footprint and over 65% reduction in GWP vs. existing products.

The stock has been stuck in limbo despite a price target increase to $69 by Citicorp in May. This lack of action may be due to a bit of rotation out of industrial names. I still like the stock but am keenly aware of the July expiration of our 50 calls and am watching closely for a good exit point.

Dollar General missed earnings and sales estimates last week. Soft customer traffic and a shift away from more profitable product categories dampened profits. Elevated inventory levels increase the risk of further disappointments.

Although management is keeping guidance for the year, the stock is down 6% and the puts up 27% since my recommendation.

Weak results from another player in the dollar space, Dollar Tree pressured the group. Both Dollar Tree and Dollar General noted weak sales due to a cold start to spring and increased freight costs.

Target (NYSE: TGT) launched same-day delivery in Midwest via its Shipt service. The retail chain plans to offer same-day delivery of groceries, essentials, home, electronics, toys and other products from the majority of its stores by the 2018 holiday season.

As a reminder, Target bought Shipt last December for $550 million with the intention of this home delivery launch. The plan appears to be on schedule.

The stock was added to US 1 List at BofA/Merrill. The US 1 List represents the firm’s best investment ideas from its universe of U.S. based stocks.

Stock Talk

John N

John N

Thank you Linda!
Waiting for your next ideas.

MODERATOR: Lisa G

MODERATOR: Lisa G

Any updates on OMC?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Lisa,
The most recent update I have on OMC is a lowering of a price target by Morgan Stanley on May 23rd. I was not impressed by the last quarter but the stock has been pretty resilient. The next event for the company is its earnings release right before the puts expire (expected on July 18 and options expire July 20). The stock finally caught some sellers but rebounded. In retrospect, it was a good selling point.
Best,
Linda

MODERATOR: Lisa G

MODERATOR: Lisa G

Thanks Linda, yes the stock has been resilient. I am thinking if there is another downswing it might be a good time to exit as the time value will be almost nil once we are a month out.

Matt H

Matt H

I’m wondering with SND trading so low if it makes sense to pick up more shares and reduce the cost per share overall? Are we still expecting SND to move upward into the low 20’s?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Matt,
I apologize for the delay in getting back to you. I do think SND will move up to the mid-20’s but you might need some patience. It reminds me of SolarEdge (NSDQ: SEDG), a stock I had great faith in but it kept getting sold off despite good quarters. Investors were worried solar was saturated. In the same way, investors are nervous over fracking stocks. Take a peek at the SEDG chart and you can see that I sold at exactly the wrong price. So I am trying to wait it out, despite the big loss on the “books”. I hope that is helpful.
Best,
Linda

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