TRADE INSTRUCTIONS
Date: November 15, 2017
Name: Athene Holding Ltd.
Symbol: ATH (NYSE)
Type: Extend
Extension Period: 6 weeks

TRADE RATIONALE
My original three-month target holding period in Athene expires today, but rather than close out this position I am extending it through the end of December.

That’s because the same thing that drove its price down recently – fear that a provision of the Trump tax plan would cut into Athene’s profitability – has already been fully priced into the stock and can quickly reverse if no tax bill is passed at all or is passed but with the specific provision affecting Athene removed from the final version of the bill.

We shall soon find out. With one month left in the current legislative session, the GOP is scrambling to chalk up a major win before this year is over. For the record, I’d like to see a sensible tax cut passed but I don’t think this one is going to obtain enough votes to become law. If I am right about that, then ATH should rally back to where it was a month ago.  

ADDENDUM: I have reduced the stop-loss price for ATH to $44 to give this extension some wiggle room over the next six weeks (keep in mind that for portfolio management purposes I enforce stops based on dividend-adjusted closing price only, so intra-day trading does not trigger them).